BRAVO JAPAN

Japan were excellent today scoring 2 tries against an England side who conceded too many penalties under pressure in first half. It is testament to Japan's excellence that Daly kicked a penalty from halfway and Jones emptied his bench earlier than he wanted to. Who fancies playing them in the RWC in their own backyard?

BROWN DEPARTS RFU AS CEO ... SHOCK!

Steve Brown, RFU CEO, has resigned with less than a year to go to the World Cup in Japan. Nigel Melville, ex USA Rugby CEO, will step in to cover. I know the RFU has money problems, mainly due to the East stand build running over budget, and nobody was impressed that community coaches are being made redundant, but nobody expected him to leave the Banana Republic so quickly! Hardly good prep for Eddie and squad for tomorrow's game v Japan, and takes the gloss off a big occasion for the Brave Blossoms, playing at Twickenham for first time for any years.

Chris Jones of BBC explains what is happening in the Banana Republic
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/45122734

AUTUMN WEEK 3 LINE UPS AND PREDICTIONS

Ireland v New Zealand

So three weeks into the Autumn Internationals, and here is the big one - the number 1 and 2 ranked sides in the world go head to head. The strength of Ireland is reflected on the bench, where, having unfortunately lost Sean O'Brien and Robbie Henshaw to injury, they still have the likes of Iain Henderson, Jordan Larmour, Jack McGrath and Joey Carbery to fall back on. It will be the ultimate test for Ireland's new talented breed of James Ryan, Dan Leavy and Garry Ringrose, but they have battle hardened Lions in Kearney, Sexton, Best and O'Mahony in key positions, who know how to beat NZ. The AB's replace the injured Williams with Crotty, who looked good in the second half against England last week, with Lienert-Brow coming onto the bench. They will not be as a poor as last week, especially with better weather conditions predicted, and I think although Ireland will be close on the scoreboard after 60 mins, the Kiwis will stretch away to win by 10 points.

Can Ireland replicate their recent Chicago victory?

Ireland: Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Johnny Sexton, Kieran Marmion; Cian Healy, Rory Best (capt), Tadhg Furlong; Devin Toner, James Ryan; Peter O'Mahony, Dan Leavy, CJ Stander.

Replacements: Sean Cronin, Jack McGrath, Andrew Porter, Iain Henderson, Josh van der Flier, Luke McGrath, Joey Carbery, Jordan Larmour.

New Zealand: Damian McKenzie; Ben Smith, Jack Goodhue, Ryan Crotty, Rieko Ioane; Beauden Barrett, Aaron Smith; Kieran Read (capt), Ardie Savea, Liam Squire; Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock; Owen Franks, Codie Taylor, Karl Tu'inukuafe.

Replacements: Dane Coles, Ofa Tuungafasi, Nepo Laulala, Scott Barrett, Matt Todd, TJ Perenara, Richie Mo'unga, Anton Lienert-Brown.

England v Japan

England make a few starting team changes, with (18 stone) Cokanasiga and Lozowski coming into the backline, and Williams and Ewels into the forwards, plus some interesting positional switches, with Nowell in the centre, and Wilson to openside. On the bench, 19 year old Ted Hill gets his chance as replacement back row. Japan will be competitive, having scored five tries against NZ (not many teams do that) albeit in a heavy defeat, and they have beaten Georgia and Italy convincingly in last 6 months. Nobody will relish playing Japan in their own backyard in 12 months time , but England at home will be a sterner test, so think England will stretch away in 2nd half to win comfortably by 20 points. 

Japan will be seeking to impress on the big stage

England: Daly; Cokanasiga, Nowell, Lozowski, Ashton: Ford (c), Care; Hepburn, George, Williams, Ewels, Itoje, Lawes, Wilson, Mercer.

Replacements: Hartley, Moon, Sinckler, Hill, Underhill, Wigglesworth, Farrell, Slade.

Japan: Tupou; Yamada, Lafaele, Nakamura, Fukuoka; Tamura, Tanaka; Inagaki, Sakate, Koo, van der Walt, Helu, Leitch (c), Nishikawa, Himeno.

Replacements: Niwai, Yamamoto, Ai Valu, Anise, Tui, Nunomaki, Nagare, Matsuda.

Scotland v South Africa

Following a poor performance against Wales, and a better than expected victory over Fiji, this game will reveal where Scotland are truly at, a year out from the RWC. Scotland replaced Australia this week as 6th in World Rugby rankings, so in theory, pitching 5th (SA) v 6th against each other should be an even contest, but there are some that believe that South Africa are level with Ireland as 2nd best in the world on current form. Scotland bring back Huw Jones, who won the Currie Cup for Western Province, before heading north, move Pete Horne to 12 in place of Dunbar, give Gordon Reid a shout in the front row, and move (last week's MOM) Sam Skinner to back row. 

South Africa unsurprisingly seek contact

South Africa's pack must be almost 950kg, as, despite losing Etzebeth and Whiteley to injury, they have brought in the (giant) Snyman and Mostert into the second row and moved Du Toit to back row. Luckily for Scotland, key playmaker, Faf de Klerk, is replaced by Embrose at scrum half. With no rain and wind forecast, Scotland will be aiming to avoid an arm wrestle, win quick ball, and move the bigger, heavier pack around the pitch. SA will look to batter Scotland up front (that means from position 1 - 12) and tire Scotland out through a high tackle count. Interesting game, between two teams with different styles and game plans, but I think size does matter, and Safa's will win by 5.

Scotland team: Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors); Tommy Seymour (Glasgow Warriors), Huw Jones (Glasgow Warriors), Pete Horne (Glasgow Warriors), Sean Maitland (Saracens), Finn Russell (Racing 92), Greig Laidlaw (Clermont - captain); Gordon Reid (London Irish), Stuart McInally (Edinburgh), Willem Nel (Edinburgh), Ben Toolis (Edinburgh), Jonny Gray (Glasgow Warriors), Sam Skinner (Exeter Chiefs), Hamish Watson (Edinburgh), Ryan Wilson (Glasgow Warriors). 

Replacements: Fraser Brown (Glasgow Warriors), Allan Dell (Edinburgh), Simon Berghan (Edinburgh), Josh Strauss (Sale Sharks), Jamie Ritchie (Edinburgh), Ali Price (Glasgow Warriors), Adam Hastings (Glasgow Warriors), Chris Harris (Newcastle Falcons).

South Africa team: Willie le Roux, Sbu Nkosi, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Aphiwe Dyantyi, Handre Pollard, Embrose Papier; Steven Kitshoff, Malcolm Marx, Frans Malherbe, RG Snyman, Franco Mostert, Siya Kolisi (captain), Pieter-Steph du Toit, Duane Vermeulen.

Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Thomas du Toit, Vincent Koch, Lood de Jager, Francois Louw, Ivan van Zyl, Elton Jantjies, Cheslin Kolbe.

SCOTLAND HAVE DEPTH

For years Scotland have looked on with envy at England, Ireland and even Wales at their strength in depth especially in key positions such as 2, 8, 9, 10 and 15. If a Billy Vunipola got injured, England simply rolled out Nathan Hughes or Ben Morgan, whereas if Scotland's first choice was unavailable they were vulnerable as they only had two professional teams (and they were not great). But things are changing north of the border.

In the back row Gregor Townsend and his coaching team face a rare dilemma in Scotland - choice. Ryan Wilson, Hamish Watson and John Barclay have been regulars over the last couple of seasons, but now they face competition from young bucks like James Ritchie, Matt Fagerson and Magnus Bradbury plus recent converted Scots in David Denton, Blade Thompson, Sam Skinner and now Gary Graham, (who was selected by Eddie Jones but not capped). There are also a few, like Barclay, being brought back from the wilderness such as Josh Strauss, and if John Hardie goes well at Newcastle, he may also come back into consideration - it was only at the last RWC that he was parachuted into the squad from NZ before playing for a club, such was the lack of quality.

Gary Graham faces tough oppo for a place in Scotland's back row

Having options is an odd feeling for Scottish fans, who still get nervous every time Russell, Hogg or Laidlaw go down with a knock. But they can afford now to relax a little with alternatives including:

Out wide
Blair Kinghorn covering full back and wing, Nick Grigg and Sam Johnson in better form than Dunbar or Jones at centre, G Horne, Price and Pyrgos all battling for scrum half berth and Adam Hastings finally offering a class alternative at 10.

Up front
As well as back row, there is back up in every forward  position, whether it be Brown, McNally or Ford at hooker, Dell, Nel, Berghan, Reid, Allan and McCallum at prop, plus Gray brothers, Gilchrist, Toolis, Harley or Skinner in 2nd row.

Stuart Barnes recommends Scotland should forget RWC 2019 and focus on the 6 Nations, as he thinks, with a good start, they could win it. With RWC so important for profile, cash and auto qualification for next tournament, his advice is unlikely to be heeded, but with Scotland's improving strength in depth, I think they will knock over a Top 4 team in Japan - mark my words. Imagine if that was Ireland in the first game of their RWC group, meaning the Irish may then play the AB's in the QF.

Miracles do happen...

AUTUMN WEEK 2 MATCH REVIEW: WALES v AUSTRALIA

Wales 9 v Australia 6

Three penalties was enough for Wales to beat the Wallabies and break their 13 game hoodoo. Many times the Welsh fans have experienced last minute heartbreak against Australia, but this time, even though Oz spurned easy penalties by kicking for the corner, they failed to score the try needed, and Wales were not to be denied. Lee Halfpenny was in the thick of the action, missing two penalties (he never misses anything) and then being flattened by a careless kick follow through by Samuel Kerevi, who was not even penalised. Such is inconsistency of refereeing these days, on another day he may have been carded.

Lee Halfpenny in the thick of it

OATH follower, Tim Bradley, a real Australian rugby fan, who knows what he is talking about, gives his thoughts on the game and the players Cheika should promote over the next few weeks:

In what was a dull game for high-scoring rugby fans, there were some positives to be taken from the Wallabies disappointing loss to Wales.

In defense, the team stood up superbly, conceding just 9 points and no tries. In fact, Wales never looked like getting near bagging a meat pie, which is a credit to the focus of the collective.

History will remember that night for some poor attacking decisions from the Captain Michael Hooper not to take points on offer when Foley was kicking well and some ill-discipline from certain substitutes off the bench as what cost the Wallabies their 10-year winning run against the Welsh; however, their problems are far more deep-rooted.

Going forward the backline continuously ran sideways, in particular Kurtley Beale, who cannot continue in the 12 shirt any more. While he tackles well, he has played like a rugby league Five-Eighth this season drifting sideways and is in capable of straightening up. His kicking was awful as well and made it too easy for the Welsh back three.  

For the Wallabies to match it against the English on the hallowed turf of Twickenham, the Wallabies will need shuffle their back line. Toomua deserves to get his chance in the 10 shirt, with Samu Kerevi shifting to 12 and Israel Folau to 13, where he found himself against the All Blacks in Tokyo a month or so back and played well. Sefa Naivalu deserves to keep his spot on the Wing and Dane Haylett-Petty should continue his good form at full back. However, Cheika may looke to move Beale back to 15 as a second ball player. I’d promote young Jack Maddocks or Marika Korobete to the other wing as they’ll have the leg speed to match it with the likes of Jonny May and Elliot Daly.

Jack Maddocks the Wallabies U20 wing deserves a run

Up front, in the forwards Melbourne-born and Canberra-bound Pete Samu should be promoted ahead of Ned Hannigan to the bench as the reserve loose forward. Hannigan gave away a careless penalty against Wales for not rolling away in what has been the story of his season. Cheika should keep a back three of Hooper, Pocock and Dempsey, and I’d bring Rob Simmons back into the starting XV in the row to sure up the set piece.

Taniela Tupou will be key in the front three. He’s got to start to sure up the scrum and give the Wallabies a solid platform.

AUTUMN WEEK 2 MATCH REVIEW : ENGLAND V NZ

England 15 v New Zealand 16

Boy did it rain, something which didn't affect me directly, high up in the North stand, but affected both team's tactics, the lack of tries on show and the ref's ability to assess TV replays, placing more emphasis (than was welcome or allowed) on the (South African) TMO. But amazingly what it did not affect was both team's ability to pass and catch the ball, with very few knocks ons, testament to the basic skills and mental strength on display, even later on in the game when the ball must have resembled a slippery eel. In fact, at the end of the first half, leading up to their only try, NZ produced one of the most fabulous 5 minutes of go forward rugby I have ever seen - one of the few times in the game where their traditional offloading game appeared - the accuracy and skill in the conditions was stunning. Granted, there were plenty of up and unders, box kicks and taps ahead on the floor, as both sides avoided playing any rugby in their own half, relying on opposition mistakes to give them good field position.

Ashton scores early on for England

But England will contemplate how they lost a game that they dominated for most of the first half, scoring two tries in the process, but then failed to score another point until the 75th minute, when Sam Underhill, following a Lawes chargedown, out thought and out ran Beauden Barrett, to score in the corner. The Twickenham crowd went crazy, smelling victory, only for Jerome Garces, the French ref, who had already awarded the try, to call a time out, and ask the TMO for assistance in checking whether Lawes was offside at the tackle area. His problem was, due to the crowd noise and rain, he could not review the replay footage properly, so had to rely on his TMO to make the final call, which he duly did (... it's offside so you need to change your on field decision and award a penalty), contrary to World Rugby Guidelines, which state the ref should have the final decision.

Was it correct? As it was not a ruck, but a tackle, World Rugby's lawbook states: 

​Law 14 - Tackle
Offside lines are created at a tackle when at least one player is on their feet and over the ball, which is on the ground. Each team's offside line runs parallel to the goal line through the hindmost point of any player in the tackle or on their feet over the ball. 

When game footage is slowed down, it appears Courtney Lawes is possibly slightly in front of the offside line, which is level with the shoulders of George Ford, but it is close (and the NZ prop moves forward just before the Perenara kick). And, like last week's Farrell tackle decision, it appeared harsh, with the the team on the wrong end of the call, again missing out on possibly winning the game. 

Perenara gets away with one...

But it was a real rugby match, old school in its physicality, kicking dominance and weather. OATH roving reporter, Don Tony, was there and shares his thoughts: 

Has Twickenham ever had a better atmosphere? Well if it has it must have been one hell of a game.  I have not heard Twickers this loud, with the singing of the National Anthem setting the tone for a great game in atrocious conditions. Did we miss an opportunity to put another W against the All Blacks? We certainly did ! Should we have won? Yes, of course!  Unfortunately Sam's great effort counted for absolutely nothing, but we can take so many positives out of the display, including the glaring fact that NZ can be beaten on neutral ground in a year's time. I tip Ireland to win against the All Blacks next week (just don't tell my wife, who is from Wanaka).

What do you mean the try is disallowed...

England were excellent in the first 30 minutes scoring two great tries, but NZ, despite being off colour all day, clawed their way back into the game, with 10 points before half time to make it a one score contest. And with the best phase of play in the game early in the second half, they unlocked England's tight defence beautifully, only for Aaron Smith to pass behind Ardie Savea for a certain second try. However, relentless NZ pressure yielded a drop goal and a further penalty to put the World Cup holders ahead, a lead, thanks to the TMO, that they maintained to squeeze home. England should take pride in their performance, and whilst NZ will be better next time they meet (in a RWC semi final?) England will not fear them now.