SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 5

Well, here we go, final weekend of the 2019 Six Nations, and, whilst only the Welsh can win the Slam, three teams can win the title.

Italy v France ko 1230hrs

Whilst everyone sensible would love the Italians to turnover their European counterparts at home, completing a disastrous season for the French, but it is unlikely, and should be another wooden spoon for Conor O'Shea's team.

Wales v Ireland ko 1445hrs

A titanic "Kiwi" tussle awaits in both Schmidt's and Gatland's final Six Nations games, with Warren striving to be the first coach to win three Grand Slams. Ireland call up Tadhg Beirne to replace Henderson in the 2nd row, and also bring in Sean O'Brien and Rob Kearney (not bad subs) for Van der Flier and Larmour respectively. Wales remain unchanged from the Scotland game, meaning Liam Williams has miraculously recovered from his shoulder injury. The annual shenanigans over the stadium roof is in full flow, with Wales wanting it closed (claiming poor weather) and poker faced Ireland playing a waiting game, but will surely want it open. This game is why we love rugby...

It could happen....

The OATH reporting team are 80% predicting an Irish win, most by one score, with only the Welsh contingent following their heart. I was predicting a narrow Irish victory as think they are coming into form at just the right moment, but as England found out a few years ago, the final game of the tournament in Cardiff is a unique atmosphere, and Gatland seems to be able to channel the ridiculous level of emotion positively into his players and their performance.

Wales by one score ... heaven help us all

England v Scotland ko 1700hrs

If my Wales prediction comes good, then England will be playing for pride, having already secured 2nd place, which will help Scotland, as game will probably be less structured. If Ireland triumph, then England will know any win will see them become champions, a remarkable turnaround after 5th place last season. Eddie Jones brings in Jack Nowell in place of Cokanasiga on the wing, while there are also recalls for prop Ben Moon, centre Henry Slade and flanker Mark Wilson. Mario Itoje and Dan Robson miss out because of injury. 

Hamish Watson needs to win every ruck

Scotland will be delighted that Hamish Watson is fit enough to replace the injured Jamie Ritchie, with Sam Skinner of Exter also returning to the back row. Lock Ben Toolis is in for Jonny Gray in second row, with Sean Maitland and Byron McGuigan replacing injured duo Blair Kinghorn and Tommy Seymour respectively in the back three. Aussie Sam Johnston is included at centre at expense of Pete Horne. The Scots have not won at Twickers since 1983, although they did draw a game, and certainly should have won in 1999 (when they won the last Five Nations), but the odds are heavily against them, despite winning last season's fixture. 

The OATH reporting fraternity, unsurprisingly have gone with a bonus point win for England, except for Danny McGuinnes of Dublin who (clearly loves me so much it has affected his judgement) reckons the Scots will turn them over and hand the Irish the title. Whatever the outcome, enjoy one of the greatest days in sport, and indulge in a Guinness or two in advance of St Patrick's Day.

England by 12 points.

SIX NATIONS NEED TO THINK OF OTHERS

If the Six Nations countries reject the World Rugby proposals today to set up a Nations Championships, then the sport will not progress for years. The timing of CVC’s offer for 30% of the Six Nations for around £500m is deliberately timed to wreck World Rugby plans to gain the funds to expand the game further into both Tier 2 and 3 countries. 

CVC's bid also comes only three months after it bought 27% of Premiership Rugby for £230m, which could lead to a big conflict of interest for the money grabbing private equity boys. Imagine them dictating timing of fixtures for both competitions just to please a new rugby broadcaster like Amazon or Netflix ... yes, I am sorry, bye bye terrestrial coverage (we don't care about the fans, just the cash).

The Six Nations “Project Light” proposal involves pooling TV rights from the Six Nations and Autumn Internationals, which they believe can generate more revenue than the Nations Championship. The Northern Hemisphere nations obviously do not have the bargaining power of the Six Nations, so support the World Rugby proposal. What the Six Nations need to remember is that they need these countries support for Project Light - imagine NZ boycotting its annual trip to Twickenham? Fixtures against Georgia, Fiji and Samoa, whilst absolutely necessary, will not please fans, broadcasters or union.

It is simple for me, the Six Nations needs to modernise, embrace relegation and be one part of a bigger, global tournament. Anyone who loves rugby, should want the sport played by as many people as possible in as many countries as possible. And if Japan, USA or Pacific Islands replace Wales, New Zealand and Australia amongst the rugby elite, then so be it.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 4: A TALE OF MISSED TACKLES

So Wales Grand Slam train keeps a rollin, thanks to a one score win over Scotland, maintaining Gatland's 11/11 unbeaten record against the Scots. Only Ireland can derail them now at the Principality on Saturday. England predictably routed Italy, scoring eight tries and 50+ points in the process, and can still win the Six Nations if Ireland beat Wales, as thanks to superior bonus points they are only one point behind the undefeated table leaders. And let's not forget, that if Ireland do beat the Welsh, and the Scots overcome England at Twickenham for the first time since 1983, they could also retain the Six Nations trophy they won so convincingly last year.

Scotland once again underperformed in the first half of a test match, allowing Wales in for two relatively soft tries, especially the Josh Adams effort, where Kinghorn missed a relatively straightforward one on one tackle (after the pass Adams received looked suspiciously forward). Then Pete Horne failed with an offensive tackle 10m out to prevent Jonathan Davies from scoring Wales' second try. The Scots rallied in the second half, despite losing Seymour and Kinghorn to injury, with replacements McGuigan and Hastings helping them finally get over the gainline.

Jonathan Davies ... like a fine red he gets better with age

The Scottish forwards started to gain yardage, especially Dell and Watson, but despite all the possession and territory, they could only score a single try, thanks to the Shaun Edwards inspired Welsh defence, which was clinical. It was also cynical at times, and how the referee did not card the Welsh for persistent offside or slowing the ball down is anyone's guess. Wales won ugly again, and, if they do win the Slam,will not be the best Welsh team to win all their matches, but certainly have set new standards in defence and mental strength, and how Gatland has successfully pulled together players from four underperforming Welsh franchises is nothing short of a miracle.

England's "Pacific Island" inspired backline cut loose against the sorry Italians, who could not cope with the multiple strike runners of Vunipola, Tuilagi, Cokanasiga, Te'o and Daly. They did not help themselves however, gifting the opposition at least half of their eight tries, with two clearing kick charge downs and many missed one on one tackles, something a Tier 1 nation should not be guilty of ever. With England 31 - 7 up with an hour to go, the game went flat, not the first time England has lost its concentration in the second half, but luckily Italian mistakes handed them back the initiative once more. There were plenty of positives for the English, with Genge, Kruis and Daly all having a fine games, although Shields was quiet again (despite his scores) and Cokanasiga was badly out of position defensively for Italy's tries. England move onto Scotland next week, where last year's loss appears to be still hurting them, so will be seeking to put 50+ points on a weakened Scottish side and hope Ireland do them a favour in Cardiff.

Is Big Joe the new Jonah Lomu?

Ireland regained some of their NZ beating form for the first time since being battered by England on the opening weekend, in easily overcoming a poor French team. Ireland recalled six forwards to their pack after the Italy game, with Ryan, Henderson and Best all putting in good performances. Ireland were 26 - 0 up before two late tries put a gloss on the scoreline. France had no answers to the wile and cunning of Sexton, and the pace of Larmour and Earls (the postman, who always delivers). France, who, despite naming an unchanged side (for first time ever?) could not repeat their improved home performance against Scotland, now travel to Rome to avoid the humiliation of defeat (surely possible...). Ireland, in Joe Schmidt's last ever Six Nations game, will want to deny Wales their Slam, and give themselves the chance to win the Championship, should the Scots turn water into whisky at Twickenham.