SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 4

Scotland v Wales ko 1415hrs Saturday

Wales replace the injured Cory Hill with Adam Beard in the second row, with Jake Ball coming onto the bench, the only changes to the squad that beat England two weeks ago. Gareth Anscombe, again starts at fly half ahead of Dan Biggar. Even though Wales are going for the Slam, and Gatland has never lost to the Scots, it will be interesting to see how the 13 Welsh players affected by the mooted Ospreys-Scarlets merger react tomorrow. Not sure why the clubs decided to go public before the end of the tournament, but nothing surprises me with rugby administrators any more.

Adam Beard, the only change in Wales starting XV tomorrow

Scotland make four changes to the team that lost to France in Paris, with Finn Russell and WP Nel returning from injury, and Ali Price and Darcy Graham replacing Greig Laidlaw and Sean Maitland respectively. In the forwards, Magnus Bradbury is retained to bring some bulk to the mobile back row of Josh Strauss and Jamie Ritchie, an area where the Welsh are strong. 

Out wide, Peter Horne moves to 12 to accommodate Russell, giving them two good attackers and distributors, which should see Grigg, Kinghorn and the wings get plenty of ball. Sam Johnson drops out of the squad altogether, with Byron McGuigan coming onto the bench as backs cover, alongside the specialist half backs in Laidlaw and Adam Hastings. Scotland would love to spoil the Welsh Grand Slam dream in Gats final season. If they can play without fear, win some quick ball, especially at the breakdown and lineout, put the Welsh under sustained pressure, and get the crowd behind them, then they will score points, but can they deliver over 80 minutes?

Prediction: Scotland by 5

England v Italy ko 1645hrs Saturday

Eddie Jones has thrown caution to the wind and made quite a few changes to the squad that lost to Wales last time out. The England backline has an international flavour to it, with Ben Te'o and Joe Cokanasiga joining Manu Tuilagi in the starting lineup, with the half backs, Farrell and Youngs unchanged - hopefully Robson will get more gametime at scrum half off the bench. Up front, Genge, Launchbury and Shields all come in, with Moon and Wilson dropping to the bench and Lawes and Itoje out injured. England's game plan is clear, to bully Italy in all areas, not just upfront, although they also have plenty of pace in the front row, back row and back three. The front row contest will be attritional with Sinckler and Genge in the thick of it for sure.

Ellis Genge (left) will bring further mobility and aggression to the front row

Italy, after an impressive first half performance against Ireland, bring Parisse and Negri back into the pack following injury, and give hooker, Luca Bigi, his first start. Hard to believe it was only 2 years ago since Italy caused "ruckgate" at Twickenham, which some English players have still not recovered from. They will want quick ball, to break up the game, and move the heavy English forwards and backs around the park. Connor O'Shea is a smart coach, and Benetton deserve their lofty Pro 14 league position, so expect Italy to still be in the contest at 60 minutes, only for England to stretch away.

Prediction: England by 18

WORLD RUGBY PROPOSES NEW COMPETITION

All global rugby nations split into two conferences, a European one and a Rest of the World one, with each conference split into three divisions based on world ranking. All teams in the Division 1 of each conference will play against each other annually for points to win the division, gain promotion or avoid relegation. The same with Division 2 and Division 3. Division 1 in European Conference will be made up of current Six Nations countries with Division 1 from ROW Conference coming from current teams in Rugby Championship (plus two other countries based on world ranking). The top two teams in each conference in each division will then enter a play off, with the winners playing a final to determine the Division winners. This will mean a maximum number of international games of 11 per team per season, which is not far off what Wales (for example) would play currently in Six Nations (5 games) and Autumn Internationals (4 games) plus summer tour. This competition would not be played in World Cup years, and there would be no promotion or relegation in a Lions year.

Have a look at the enclosed video and make up your own mind. I was a sceptic, but having thought about it, am now broadly in favour as it will make all matches meaningful and expose some Tier 2 nations to more Tier 1 rugby. The clubs (especially in England and France) will not like it as players from the nations involved in playoffs will be absent for up to six consecutive weeks in the Autumn, and some players have already expressed concern regards travel required, burnout and injury recovery, and it will obviously favour those nations with greater strength in depth. Home and away advantage will be a major factor in influencing the outcome, especially when Northern Hemisphere teams play their Southern counterparts. And clearly the Six Nations countries and organisers have always resisted relegation so that sacred cow will need to be slaughtered.

https://www.world.rugby/video/403128