Thursday 21 March 2019

JAPAN WORLD CUP REVIEW

So what does the Six Nations outcome mean to our projections for Rugby World Cup in Japan in 6 months time?

(1) Wales' Slam means they could win it, as having put together an unbeaten 14 match run, they have clearly showed they could win the 7 consecutive games required to lift the trophy. That now means there are (probably) six teams in the mix, from NZ, Australia and South Africa to England, Ireland and now Wales.

(2) Whilst Scotland will not win the tournament, having put 38 unanswered points in 55 minutes on England at home, they could have an important influence on the QF or SF line ups - Ireland will certainly be feeling less comfortable about their head to head group fixture on that opening weekend of the tournament. And if the Scots win Group A, they avoid NZ in the Quarter Finals, forcing the Irish to play the All Blacks, a match up everyone thinks will not happen until the final.

(3) England, despite winning the first half of every game, showed their mental frailty and lack of leadership under pressure persists from the Autumn, in failing to close out games from a winning position against Wales and Scotland. This will give France some hope in the Group stages, as it will Australia, who they may face in the QF's.

Whilst the Top 8 seeds in the World rankings remain unchanged today versus when the Groups were originally drawn over a year ago, what is interesting is the rise of teams like Fiji (9th), Japan (11th) and Georgia (12th). What odds on Japan beating Scotland in their final group game (at altitude) to reach their first ever QF, or Fiji turning over Australia in the real Group of Death to make a QF against England?

The bookies would project the RWC Quarter Finalists to be as follows:

England v Australia
New Zealand v Scotland (or Ireland)
Wales v France
Ireland (or Scotland) v South Africa

This would then lead to England v NZ and Wales v Ireland SF's, with final being NZ v Ireland (top two teams ranked in the world).

The hopeless romantics would project the RWC Quarter Finalists to be slightly different:

France v Fiji
South Africa v Japan
Australia v Argentina
Ireland v New Zealand

This would then lead to France v South Africa and Australia v NZ SF's, with final being South Africa v New Zealand.

Summer warm up games will be upon us before you know it, so will publish a full list of dates in due course.




Monday 18 March 2019

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 5: WELSH SLAM

Super Saturday saw Wales overcome the emotion and a poor Irish performance to achieve the Grand Slam, Warren Gatland's third in total, making him the first coach to win three Grand Slams in Five or Six Nations history following 2008 and 2012 achievements. Gatland has now won 43 Six Nations matches, which is 13 more than anyone else, and Wales have now won their last 14 Test matches, a feat only England have bettered with 18 consecutive victories from 2015 - 17.


From the kick off, Wales looked up for the occasion, with the outstanding Hadleigh Parkes scoring a try after a few minutes. Ireland never recovered, and in terrible wet, windy conditions, Wales just controlled the tempo of the game and were ruthless in turning territory and pressure into points. Gareth Anscombe put in a masterful display of kicking, slotting 6 penalties under immense pressure, and, despite an early Stockdale run, Ireland only got on the scoreboard right at the death when 25 - 0 down. 


Gareth Anscombe kicked 20 points on Saturday
Most of Ireland's star names just didn't show up, including Sexton, who had a terrible game, but they are not a bad side (their #3 world ranking does not lie). Spare a thought for Joe Schmidt, the Ireland coach, who deserved a more competitive performance from his team - unfortunately his squad never recovered from being battered by England in the first game. And they need to find their mojo quickly in the RWC warm up games in the summer after a poor Six Nations tournament by their standards. Suddenly, Rory Best, Sean O'Brien, Rob Kearney and Cian Healey are starting to look old, but Ireland has some great young players coming through who gained valuable game time over the last few weeks, and also the Irish U20's won their Championship trophy so future looks brighter for them.

After 30 minutes in the final game of the weekend, England were 31 - 0 up on the Scots at Twickenham, and playing some awesome rugby, although the Scots poor defence helped enormously. Many of the away supporters were contemplating going to the bar (or home) during the half time break, when Stuart McNally (somehow) outpaced both May and Farrell for a consolation try just before the interval. What followed in the next 35 minutes was the most extraordinary passage of play I have ever seen at Twickenham, if anywhere. Scotland scored five unanswered tries to lead by 7 points going into the final 3 minutes of play. It was a combination of fantastic skill by Scotland (Finn Russell's pass to Maitland for the 4th try was better than last year's effort to Huw Jones) and England's defensive mistakes (a further kick chargedown, an intercept and woeful tackling). Sam Johnson's running line, sidestep (on Nowell) and handoff (on Daly) were simply epic, and Scotland's sixth try deserved to break the 1983 hoodoo. However, probably due to fatigue, Scotland allowed England to get from their own 22 up to the other end of the pitch in extra time and score under the posts to draw the match. Wow...no other word for it. I think both defence coaches will be nervous this week, but it was great entertainment for the neutral (and as good, if not better then any football comeback).


England stayed out at half time for a chat ... that worked well then
Scotland, who had a poor Six Nations tournament, where they were expecting to beat France, if not either Wales or Ireland at home, at least now have something positive to focus on (especially in attack). Thanks to the long injury list, fringe players like Darcy Graham, Ben Toolis, Magnus Bradbury, Sam Johnson and Adam Hastings have been exposed to more Test match rugby, so giving Gregor Townsend extra options for his RWC squad. Amd Scotland has never had many Test match warriors, but Finn Russell, Hamish Watson and Stuart McNally are getting close. 


Aussie Sam evades four England defenders to put Scotland ahead
England, once again choked under pressure in a big game, and they need to show the ability to concentrate for 80+ minutes, especially when comfortably in control of a game. It was their downfall against NZ in the Autumn, against Wales a few weeks ago and it reappeared here. Own Farrell is a world class player, but he self imploded mentally on Saturday, and should have been carded for his (no arms, high and late) tackle on Darcy Graham. Credit to Eddie Jones for taking him off, although, following two chargedowns and an intercept, he should have been replaced by Ford earlier. Had Laidlaw slotted that penalty, the game would have been out of reach. The challenge Eddie had is that Farrell is the captain and natural leader of the team, and there are not many others. Tuilagi is a wrecking ball of an inside centre, but does not communicate well and take pressure of his fly half. Ford or Slade are better wingmen, but Eddie favours brawn over brains. England may face Wales in a RWC QF so they need to fix it quickly in the summer, otherwise we might be watching a repeat of 2015.


Cheer up lads, you scored six tries at Twickers
So what a climax to this year's tournament - a third Slam for Gatland's Wales, the highest score draw ever in a Test match, and Scotland scored 6 tries, the first opposition to do so at Twickenham. Japan is only 6 months away ... can't wait!