SIX NATIONS 2017 WEEK 3: IRELAND v FRANCE REVIEW

Sexton fit for Irish which indicates that Joe Schmidt is going to take a risk and go all out to win the game and take that next step in setting up that Dublin Six Nations decider against England.

France have been forced to make a couple of changes after the Battle of Paris against Scotland a couple of weeks ago losing a back row and winger to injury. Anyone who thinks the Six Nations could be held over five weeks is an idiot or English (with their strength in depth).

France need to kick their goals and force Ireland into making lots of tackles in first 60 mins so their stronger bench has to come on earlier than planned. But if Ireland can win quick ball against the 900+ kg French pack then experience in back row/half back and home advantage should see them win by a score.

SIX NATIONS 2017 WEEK 3 : SCOTLAND v WALES REVIEW

Scotland v Wales 1425hrs Saturday 25th February

A game with a bit of edge, which we all love. Scotland, having not beaten Wales for a few years, would love to get one over their Celtic cousins. Some still remember recent encounters where Hogg was controversially red carded after tackling Biggar in the air, or Davies scoring a try from a clear forward pass (I do anyway). Both teams need a win to have any hope of putting pressure on England, with the loser facing another season of mediocrity.

Wales have announced their squad early:

Leigh Halfpenny (Toulon); George North (Northampton), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Liam Williams (Scarlets); Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Rhys Webb (Ospreys); Rob Evans (Scarlets), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, capt), Sam Warburton (Cardiff Blues), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Ross Moriarty (Gloucester).

Replacements: Scott Baldwin (Ospreys), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Luke Charteris (Bath), Taulupe Faletau (Bath), Gareth Davies (Scarlets), Sam Davies (Ospreys), Jamie Roberts (Harlequins)

Scotland, having lost Laidlaw and Strauss for the rest of the tournament, are still pontificating on scrum half and back row replacements (and captain) before announcing their squad.

The game will inevitably be won up front, with Wales appearing to have the edge in the front three over the fragile Scottish row, although Scotland did gain parity with Ireland in the second half of their game, and most teams will struggle up front against France's 900kg+ pack. 

At the breakdown, it could be titanic, with a re-vitalised Warburton and Tipuric against Barclay (the Scarlet) and Hamish Watson, who appears to have come of age in the tournament (and who BOD tipped to go on Lions tour). Out wide, Russell and Biggar will go (literally) head to head, very different styles but both effective and extremely tough competitors. 

Scotland's new centre pairing of Dunbar and Jones (the Stormer) is maturing nicely, but will be severely tested against Williams and Davies, and in the back three, there could be fireworks, with North, back fit again, alongside Halfpenny and Williams, coming up against Hogg, Seymour and Maitland.

My hunch is that Barclay will captain Scotland, the scrum halves will fight, Wyn Jones will have a stormer but that the home team will nick it by a score. It will be a great spectacle whatever the outcome...  

Update Saturday of game: 

Mmm, well got the captain right but not much else. Reid in for Dell to shore up front row, Hardie in for Watson, to bring a bit more physicality to back row. I saw Watson compete quite nicely up front and on the floor with the Irish back row so not sure I agree. Hardie not played much rugby and has a history of concussion like North. Anyway to have a guy on the bench in such great form is a plus. Wilson in for Strauss which will produce a titanic battle at 8 as although Wilson not as big as Moriarty he is nasty and has form. Finally Visser in for Maitland, which is not a bad swap but a shame for the Kilted Kiwi as he was in the form of his life. But why play first choice guys on their week off #thanksSarries it is just mind-boggling. Anyway awesome game in prospect and expect tries.

SCOTLAND EXPECTS...

After the most awesome final 10 minutes last weekend against Ireland, where the Scots, having given up a 21-5 lead, uncharacteristically put pressure on the opposition to force the errors and resulting penalties, that allowed them to squeeze ahead and secure a rare victory, the nation expects them to do it again today in Paris, where they have not won since 1999.

OATH roving reporter, Doylie, is there for us, and is ready to see history unfold...

Doylie en Paris avec son ami ... not sure where his right hand is

IRELAND BACK ON THE HORSE

OATH reporter Dan McGuinness watched the game from his couch and fed through his analysis of their thrashing of Italy yesterday.

CJ Stander, Irish record breaker, scores again

Ireland bus got there on time this week and restored morale with a big win against rugged Italy. Apart from 2 hat-tricks and bonus point win, Paddy Jackson kicked everything and linked up almost every move. Momentum back but not getting carried!

ONE POOR KICK, ONE AWESOME PASS

Is that what test match rugby has come down to? One awful clearance kick from Jonathan Davies, the wrong man in the wrong position off the wrong foot, and seconds later, having received the ball from Ford in midfield, Owen Farrell delivers the most awesome, accurate bullet pass to Daly, who never breaking stride, gets on the outside of Cuthbert to score in the corner to win a game that like last week, England should never have won.

Game, set and match...

OATH roving reporters, Mark Jones and Tony Harjette were there - what did they think?

Mark Jones of Trebanos: So big day arrived and the usual buzz of Wales v England. The odd pre match comment of Wales employing daffodil throwing goats to frighten the English were not seen but the atmosphere was intense. The match was a gripping and when England pressure led to an 8-3 lead we feared the worst. But the Welsh fightback was awesome. With Wales back row dominant. England seemed shaken and Wales seemed in control only to lose it in then in a way which has become too common. An unfortunate kick in field and England cool heads took their chance. Ifs whats and maybes don't count but it is hard for a layman to understand why we did not take our kicks when offered or why we substituted players who were going well so early in second half. All in all a great game but frustrating to us Welsh. 

Did Wales lose it or England win it is a matter of some debate but the important point is who has most points after 80mins, and these games have never been predictable although we Welsh will need to lick our wounds and move on. At least we did not see a bank of daffodil throwing goats!!!

Tony of Harrow: The day started like a normal morning on a packed tube, except alcohol was being consumed and this train was full of Eddie Jones disciple's off to Cardiff.  The city a buzz, with the Welsh keen to reply to Sweet Chariots about putting it where the sun does not shine. 

However at the end of the day its about taking your chances and boy do this group know how to do that. The only unbeaten side after round two, come on boys.

Tony did send a pre-match photo of him and lots of excited English fans...well most anyway

English fans boost the Welsh economy in Cardiff

MORE IRISH WAKE THAN CRAIC

Marvellous game, wonderful atmosphere, spectacular opening 30 minutes from Scotland, a centre scoring from a lineout, amazing comeback from Ireland, need I go on?

Dunbar's cheeky try for Scotland

Luckily I was there, having given up my debenture at Twickenham, I decided to broaden horizons and head to Edinburgh with Doylie and Blakey, to catch up with Danny, an old buddy from Dublin. The day started well with first experience of tram service into town (I told you I have not been out much) and a swift trip to a tat shop on Princes Street to buy the compulsory "Jimmy Hat". We then had to wait for the Cafe Royal at end of Rose Street to open at 1100hrs, and Guinness frenzy commenced.

Cafe Royal: A beautiful place to be

Ireland weren't the only ones late to the ground, and having missed the anthems, we settled down to witness the best opening 30 minutes from a Scotland team since the 1999 side destroyed France in the Paris sun. The Scottish backs were ruthless in exploiting the space created by the back row's dominance at the breakdown - Wilson and Strauss have been described as journeymen, but, along with young Watson, they outmuscled and outsmarted their Irish counterparts. Hoggy got the ball over the line but the forwards won them the game. The Gray brothers were outstanding, whether carrying, tackling or stealing lineout ball, and young Fagerson played the full 80 mins against an experienced Irish front row. 

The Irish looked shellshocked, not just at half time, 21-5 down, but also in that final 10 minutes, having got themselves back in front, only to concede two soft penalties to lose the match. Laidlaw is a class act, kicking everything, and then showing ice in the brain, by kicking for the Irish corner at the death, when a shot at goal seemed the obvious choice. No wonder VC keeps him on, despite Ali Price playing out of his skin for Glasgow, and desperate to show what he could do.

The Scots emerged from Murrayfield to face a beautiful sunset accompanying their walk back to the town, with a spring in their step and that strange, unusual feeling of having won a "tight" test match - no longer the bridesmaids! The Irish on the other hand were devastated, this was meant to be the first easy hurdle on the way to greeting England to a Grand Slam decider at the Aviva in March. Some blamed the ref, some blamed players like Heaslip and Kearney, only a few praised Scotland for bringing an uncharacteristic intensity for the full 80 minutes. They weren't even up for a gag from their Scottish pals about the "wooden spoon" - more wake than craic...

I like Ireland, they have raised the bar on attacking rugby in the Northern hemisphere, and deservedly beat the Kiwis in the Autumn. However, they don't need someone like ROG increasing the tension between the two teams with an ill advised comment before the game, about Scots being "mouthy" and "not being able to back it up". He did apologise afterwards, whilst eating humble pie, but surprised he is even aware of the recent Munster-Glasgow incident regarding targeting of Conor Murray, as he has followed the euro gravy train to French rugby and the Top 14. Anyway, here is his "silly kick" in 2013 in same fixture putting hs team under great pressure ... enjoy!

Edinburgh was jumping regardless, as the nation released the frustration and disappointment of losing to Australia in the World Cup QF (and may other heroic Scottish defeats). France next Sunday in Paris is another challenge altogether, but for one night at least the heavy flowed.

CAN LIGHTNING STRIKE TWICE?

Can Ireland beat NZ twice in a row, a team they have never beaten before, and quite probably the most dominant team ever. By 1930hrs UK time we will know if lightning can strike twice. However, most non English people will be cursing the TV schedulers who, like last week, have put two big games on at the same time - Ireland v All Blacks and Scotland v Argentina - both at 1700hrs. Why the TV companies can't agree a sequential schedule is beyond me. And what makes it worse, my football team is playing at the same time, and I don't have Sky Q!

Nathan, the Fijian, will face his fellow Islanders today

My prediction for today - England by 17, Argentina by 10, NZ by 10, Wales by many

Enjoy another festive feast of beer and friendship.