WHO WILL WIN SIX NATIONS?

Okay, off the fence immediately, Ireland will win the Six Nations, but not a Grand Slam this year. They are (probably) the best team in the world at the moment, with best coach, most strength in depth and an awesome mix of experience and raw young talent. They are capable of winning all their home games, including England this Saturday, and will beat Scotland away, but will fall short against Wales in the final game, but win title on bonus points.

Another Championship but no Grand Slam this year

Wales will finish second, despite beating Ireland, England and France, but will lose at Murrayfield against the Scots (just like two years ago). England and Scotland will fight it out for 3rd and 4th place, with England victorious over France and Scotland, but losing to Wales and Ireland. The Scots will beat Wales and France (away) but come up short against Ireland (home) and England (away).

France and Italy will tussle for the Wooden Spoon, with the French winning their final game against the Italians to hand them the "cucchiaio di legno".

However, jumping back on the fence again, there are 7 games which could go either way, and could mean one of four teams could potentially win Six Nations - these are as follows (I have indicated my victor):

France v Wales (win)
Ireland (win) v England
Scotland v Ireland (win)
France v Scotland (win)
Wales (win) v England
Scotland (win) v Wales
Wales (win) v Ireland

What do you think?

SIX NATIONS SQUADS ANNOUNCED

England
They have a tough year, with all the Blue teams at home, but Wales and Ireland away, which they will need to beat at least one of (probably both) to win the Championship. Eddie is bragging that he has all his big guns back - Vunipola x 2, Tuilagi, Launchbury, Lawes, Cokanasiga, Teo and Farrell (assuming fit), and has a simple game plan - to smash em up! Good to see Dan Robson of Wasps getting a run at 9.

Wales
In contrast to England, Wales have two strongest teams, Ireland and England, at home in the Principality Stadium, and go away to Blue teams, although France in Paris in first game, will not be easy. Warren Gatland has a few injuries in back row, including Faletau, and out wide, where Leigh Halfpenny and Rhys Patchell still have concussion. Still, despite no Welsh region making the knock out stages of the European Champions Cup, they have impressive strength in depth, and are a good tournament team, and could beat either of the two big teams in Cardiff, so will definitely have a say in the Championship winner outcome.

Ireland
Joe Schmidt has the luxury of the strongest Irish squad ever, and even with a few injuries, they have depth in every position from front row, back row to centres and back three. Assuming Sexton and Murray are fit, they should win the Championship, but may struggle to top both England at home and Wales away, especially, if one of their talisman gets injured. They will entertain, courtesy of a backline full of world class players - Murray plus Sexton, along with Bundee Aki, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Keith Earls, Rob Kearney and Jacob Stockdale, to name a few.

Scotland
Despite recent improvements, with only two professional teams, Gregor Townsend was always going to suffer from lack of strength in depth with injuries to key players such as John Barclay, Hamish Watson, David Denton, Richie Gray, and Byron McGuigan. Strength in the back three and half back may be nullified by lack of power up front to get the backs on the front foot - injuries to front row will further exacerbate this. However, with Edinburgh the most improved team in Europe, thanks to their pack overpowering Montpellier and Toulon in the process, Scotland will be competitive, and may turnover either Wales or Ireland at home.

France
Swings and roundabouts selection wise for the French. On the plus side, much needed experience returns from injury in the form of Camille Lopez, Morgan Parra and Wesley Fofana, and they select five talented uncapped players, including Romain Ntamack, Dorian Aldegheri, Gregory Alldritt, Thomas Ramos and South African born Paul Willemse. On the flipside, key players missing include Teddy Thomas, Yoann Maestri, Cedric Gomes and Mathieu Babilot. They will be big, brutal and French, so expect the unexpected, including edging Wales at home in the first game.

EUROPEAN CHAMPIONS CUP: FINAL 8 CONFIRMED

So as predicted a couple weeks ago, there will be 3 x Irish, 2 x French, 2 x Scots, only 1 English and no Welsh teams in the quarter finals of the European Champions Cup. This is the second season that Saracens have been the sole English club to make the knockout stages. Many reasons have been given over the last week for this happening - my take is it is a combination of Irish and Scots improvement, plus the fact that the best players in these countries are concentrated across 2-4 sides, whereas in England and France it is 12 and 14 respectively. On the issue of relegation causing English Premiership teams to focus on the league at the expense of Europe, I think this may have been a consideration for Newcastle, but cannot be used as an excuse by Exeter, Gloucester, Wasps or Leicester.

No Ospreys or any other Welsh region in Europe's knockout stages this year

So the knockout stages of Europe's premier competiton look like this:

QF 1: Saracens v Glasgow Warriors, Allianz Park
QF 2: Edinburgh Rugby v Munster Rugby, Murrayfield
QF 3: Leinster Rugby v Ulster Rugby, Aviva Stadium
QF 4: Racing 92 v Toulouse, Paris La Defense Arena

All games to be played on weekend of 29th - 31st March 2019, with the winners of QF1 playing winners of QF2, and winners of QF3 playing winners of QF4. On form this should be a Saracens v Leinster final, with losing semi finalists being Edinburgh and Racing 92 respectively. However the romantics will be praying for a Glasgow v Edinburgh semi final (at a neutral Scottish football ground), or an Ulster v Toulouse semi final between two clubs who have won the trophy before. That could then set up an unlikely pairing of Edinburgh and Toulouse in the final. Let's wait and see what injuries each squad suffers over the next few weeks...

EDINBURGH SECURE HOME QF

Edinburgh beat Montpellier last night at Murrayfield to secure a home quarter final against either Munster or Exeter. Their victory also ensured Glasgow qualified as one of the top three runners up even before their final game against Saracens today. So Scotland has two clubs in the QF for the first time ever, which may be more than England can muster unless Exeter do the business today. Definitely the greatest achievement in Scottish club rugby I can remember, and the victory was especially sweet as Montpellier is coached by Vern Cotter, the ex Scotland coach. Richard Cockerill, the Edinburgh coach, has performed wonders since his arrival, evidenced by the fact that the Edinburgh forwards destroyed the Harlem Globetrotting Montpellier pack last night. It could be a great Six Nations.

EUROPEAN CHAMPIONS CUP - ONE WEEK TO GO

Wow, what a weekend for Irish and Scottish clubs on the penultimate European Champions Cup weekend. How good is Irish Rugby right now? Munster destroyed Gloucester on their own patch, Leinster (without a few key players) comfortably overcame Toulouse and Ulster impressively won a tight game against a full strength Racing Metro.

Next weekend, all Leinster now has to do is overcome a struggling Wasps to top the group, with Toulouse (three points behind), hot favourites to beat Bath at home, to finish as one of the three best runners up. Munster still face a tough game at home against Exeter this weekend, who are in second in the group, and who need to win the match (and the group) to reach the QF - if they overcome the Irish province at Thomond Park, they will deserve it (and make them only the second English club in the draw). Ulster sit three points behind Racing, who top the group, and will need to gain at least a point away at Leicester to qualify for the knockout stage as a runner up. Racing, at home to Scarlets, will win the group and secure a home QF.

Jacob Stockdale scored again to help Ulster to victory

Both Scottish clubs also managed to win their European fixtures, with Glasgow getting back on the horse, securing a bonus point home win against Cardiff Blues in an entertaining game. This keeps them in touch of Saracens, who they play away this weekend, but they will need another bonus point win (and deny the English club a point) to win the group. Sarries should win the match, so meaning Glasgow may have to rely on their Edinburgh counterparts to help them out the night before. Edinburgh's bonus point win away at Toulon was my (personal) performance of the weekend. Despite Toulon's poor form, only Saracens and Newcastle have won at Toulon's home ground in the European Champions Cup before, highlighting the magnitude of the victory. This puts the Scots top of the group by three points, and makes them strong favourites to beat Montpellier at home this weekend to reach the knockout stages and secure a home QF. This would also knock the French team out of contention, and mean Glasgow would qualify as a best runner up even before their match kicks off.

Bill Mata, the Fijian no.8's try scoring offload for Edinburgh was pure genius

As predicted last weekend, I am still sticking with my Quarter Final predictions of Leinster, Munster, Ulster + Toulouse, Racing Metro + Edinburgh, Glasgow + Saracens. Who would have thought (at the start of the season) that the Pro 14 would supply 5 of the 8 teams in the knockout stages?

EUROPEAN RUGBY REACHES BUSINESS END OF SEASON

As stated in a previous post, the European Champions Cup quarter finalists are pretty much decided already. Scotland should have 2 teams (Glasgow and Edinburgh), Ireland should have 2 or 3  teams (Leinster, Munster and Ulster), France 2 (Toulouse and Racing Metro) and England just one, Saracens, with no Welsh representation at all.

What is up for grabs is winning the group and a home quarter final, a massive advantage for players and fans alike. On that basis, the key fixtures this weekend are:

Pool 5 - Toulon v Edinburgh and Montpellier v Newcastle

Edinburgh lead the pool by four points from Montpellier, who host Newcastle Falcons tomorrow - a further three points adrift - a few hours earlier than the Toulon game. Victory for Vern Cotter's Montpellier would set up a group decider at Murrayfield next weekend, while a Falcons win will mean Edinburgh starting their match in Toulon knowing victory would seal a quarter-final berth.

Richard Cockerill, the Edinburgh coach,
returns to his old club Toulon this Saturday

Pool 1 - Leinster v Toulouse

The defending European Champions are two points behind Toulouse after the French outfit edged a 28-27 win when the teams met in October at Stade Ernest Wallon. History favours victory for Leinster, however, with neither side having racked up two consecutive wins over the other in previous European action, where the stats are currently 5-4 in favour of Toulouse. However, Leinster will be without Johnny Sexton, Rob Kearney and Robbie Henshaw.

Pool 4 - Ulster v Racing Metro

Back-to-back bonus point wins over Scarlets have put Ulster in contention for a place in the last eight of the competition, something they have not achieved since 2014. A win tomorrow will leave them well placed for qualification before their final group game against Leicester at Welford Road next week. However having already claimed an emphatic 44-12 win over their Irish opponents in October, Racing Metro will be eyeing a win that would secure top spot in Pool Four. Simon Zebo returns for the French team to play on Irish soil for the first time since leaving Munster last season.

Simon Zebo is back on Irish soil this weekend for Racing Metro

Pool 2 - Exeter v Castres

Either of these teams could still qualify as best runner up, but will have to win their last two games. If Castres secure an unlikely away win at Sandy Park this weekend, then they only have to beat Gloucester at home in the final game (who cannot qualify), unlike Exeter, who will have to travel to Munster.

RWC JAPAN 2019: EARLY REVIEW

So, as we enter 2019, the year of the Rugby World Cup in Japan, a reminder of which teams are in which groups, and fixtures to look out for (or grab tickets for if you are going).

Pool A
Ireland Scotland Japan Russia Samoa

This group would be reasonably straightforward, if Japan were not the hosts, and Ireland v Scotland was not the first game up. It is unlikely but if the Scots beat an undercooked Ireland on the opening weekend, Ireland could be playing New Zealand in the QF not South Africa. The whole of Japan (and probably most of the rugby world, except Scotland) will be cheering on the Brave Blossoms in their last group game against the Scots, which (assuming the other games go to form) will be their Cup Final, for a chance to make history and reach the last 8 for the first time - Yokohama 13th October - put it in your diary.

Pool B
New Zealand South Africa Italy Namibia Canada

The outcome of this group, unfortunately, will rest on one game between Kiwis and Saffas on 21st September, again on the opening weekend in Yokohama, for the chance to avoid Ireland in the knockout stages - put it in the diary.

Pool C
England France Argentina Tonga USA

Up until the Autumn Internationals, with England in such poor form, everyone has been talking about this as the "Group of Death". Excitement has dissipated based on England's resurgence and the decline of Argentina and France (in particular). However, the French always come good in a major tournament, and will not lack for motivation in beating England in Yokohama on 12th October, especially as the loser will (probably) only have to face Australia. My pick for the game of this group however is the 2nd place fight between France v Argentina on 21st September in Tokyo.

Pool D
Australia Wales Fiji Georgia Uruguay

With Australia being in such poor form, and Wales unbeaten in the Autumn, the latter are favourites to win the group and avoid England in the last 8 - the game between the big two is in Tokyo on 29th September. However, with Fiji's rapid rise this year into the top 8 of the rankings, this group looks more and more interesting, as the Pacific Islanders are certainly capable of beating either Australia or Wales in a one off game. This is the true "Group of Death", mark my words. My pick is therefore the Fiji v Australia game in Sapporo on 21st September, for the chance to play England in the QF.

Quarter Finals projection

England v Australia
New Zealand v Scotland
Wales v France
Ireland v South Africa

But, if you have some money to burn, it would be interesting to see what odds you could get on Japan, Fiji and Argentina all making the knockout stages.

And what happens if Ireland, New Zealand, England and Wales all fail to win their groups and have to play each other? Ireland v NZ and England v Wales, with only two guaranteed a semi final place.

Wow, can't wait...