JAPAN WORLD CUP REVIEW

So what does the Six Nations outcome mean to our projections for Rugby World Cup in Japan in 6 months time?

(1) Wales' Slam means they could win it, as having put together an unbeaten 14 match run, they have clearly showed they could win the 7 consecutive games required to lift the trophy. That now means there are (probably) six teams in the mix, from NZ, Australia and South Africa to England, Ireland and now Wales.

(2) Whilst Scotland will not win the tournament, having put 38 unanswered points in 55 minutes on England at home, they could have an important influence on the QF or SF line ups - Ireland will certainly be feeling less comfortable about their head to head group fixture on that opening weekend of the tournament. And if the Scots win Group A, they avoid NZ in the Quarter Finals, forcing the Irish to play the All Blacks, a match up everyone thinks will not happen until the final.

(3) England, despite winning the first half of every game, showed their mental frailty and lack of leadership under pressure persists from the Autumn, in failing to close out games from a winning position against Wales and Scotland. This will give France some hope in the Group stages, as it will Australia, who they may face in the QF's.

Whilst the Top 8 seeds in the World rankings remain unchanged today versus when the Groups were originally drawn over a year ago, what is interesting is the rise of teams like Fiji (9th), Japan (11th) and Georgia (12th). What odds on Japan beating Scotland in their final group game (at altitude) to reach their first ever QF, or Fiji turning over Australia in the real Group of Death to make a QF against England?

The bookies would project the RWC Quarter Finalists to be as follows:

England v Australia
New Zealand v Scotland (or Ireland)
Wales v France
Ireland (or Scotland) v South Africa

This would then lead to England v NZ and Wales v Ireland SF's, with final being NZ v Ireland (top two teams ranked in the world).

The hopeless romantics would project the RWC Quarter Finalists to be slightly different:

France v Fiji
South Africa v Japan
Australia v Argentina
Ireland v New Zealand

This would then lead to France v South Africa and Australia v NZ SF's, with final being South Africa v New Zealand.

Summer warm up games will be upon us before you know it, so will publish a full list of dates in due course.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 5: WELSH SLAM

Super Saturday saw Wales overcome the emotion and a poor Irish performance to achieve the Grand Slam, Warren Gatland's third in total, making him the first coach to win three Grand Slams in Five or Six Nations history following 2008 and 2012 achievements. Gatland has now won 43 Six Nations matches, which is 13 more than anyone else, and Wales have now won their last 14 Test matches, a feat only England have bettered with 18 consecutive victories from 2015 - 17.

From the kick off, Wales looked up for the occasion, with the outstanding Hadleigh Parkes scoring a try after a few minutes. Ireland never recovered, and in terrible wet, windy conditions, Wales just controlled the tempo of the game and were ruthless in turning territory and pressure into points. Gareth Anscombe put in a masterful display of kicking, slotting 6 penalties under immense pressure, and, despite an early Stockdale run, Ireland only got on the scoreboard right at the death when 25 - 0 down. 

Gareth Anscombe kicked 20 points on Saturday

Most of Ireland's star names just didn't show up, including Sexton, who had a terrible game, but they are not a bad side (their #3 world ranking does not lie). Spare a thought for Joe Schmidt, the Ireland coach, who deserved a more competitive performance from his team - unfortunately his squad never recovered from being battered by England in the first game. And they need to find their mojo quickly in the RWC warm up games in the summer after a poor Six Nations tournament by their standards. Suddenly, Rory Best, Sean O'Brien, Rob Kearney and Cian Healey are starting to look old, but Ireland has some great young players coming through who gained valuable game time over the last few weeks, and also the Irish U20's won their Championship trophy so future looks brighter for them.

After 30 minutes in the final game of the weekend, England were 31 - 0 up on the Scots at Twickenham, and playing some awesome rugby, although the Scots poor defence helped enormously. Many of the away supporters were contemplating going to the bar (or home) during the half time break, when Stuart McNally (somehow) outpaced both May and Farrell for a consolation try just before the interval. What followed in the next 35 minutes was the most extraordinary passage of play I have ever seen at Twickenham, if anywhere. Scotland scored five unanswered tries to lead by 7 points going into the final 3 minutes of play. It was a combination of fantastic skill by Scotland (Finn Russell's pass to Maitland for the 4th try was better than last year's effort to Huw Jones) and England's defensive mistakes (a further kick chargedown, an intercept and woeful tackling). Sam Johnson's running line, sidestep (on Nowell) and handoff (on Daly) were simply epic, and Scotland's sixth try deserved to break the 1983 hoodoo. However, probably due to fatigue, Scotland allowed England to get from their own 22 up to the other end of the pitch in extra time and score under the posts to draw the match. Wow...no other word for it. I think both defence coaches will be nervous this week, but it was great entertainment for the neutral (and as good, if not better then any football comeback).

England stayed out at half time for a chat ... that worked well then

Scotland, who had a poor Six Nations tournament, where they were expecting to beat France, if not either Wales or Ireland at home, at least now have something positive to focus on (especially in attack). Thanks to the long injury list, fringe players like Darcy Graham, Ben Toolis, Magnus Bradbury, Sam Johnson and Adam Hastings have been exposed to more Test match rugby, so giving Gregor Townsend extra options for his RWC squad. Amd Scotland has never had many Test match warriors, but Finn Russell, Hamish Watson and Stuart McNally are getting close. 

Aussie Sam evades four England defenders to put Scotland ahead

England, once again choked under pressure in a big game, and they need to show the ability to concentrate for 80+ minutes, especially when comfortably in control of a game. It was their downfall against NZ in the Autumn, against Wales a few weeks ago and it reappeared here. Own Farrell is a world class player, but he self imploded mentally on Saturday, and should have been carded for his (no arms, high and late) tackle on Darcy Graham. Credit to Eddie Jones for taking him off, although, following two chargedowns and an intercept, he should have been replaced by Ford earlier. Had Laidlaw slotted that penalty, the game would have been out of reach. The challenge Eddie had is that Farrell is the captain and natural leader of the team, and there are not many others. Tuilagi is a wrecking ball of an inside centre, but does not communicate well and take pressure of his fly half. Ford or Slade are better wingmen, but Eddie favours brawn over brains. England may face Wales in a RWC QF so they need to fix it quickly in the summer, otherwise we might be watching a repeat of 2015.

Cheer up lads, you scored six tries at Twickers

So what a climax to this year's tournament - a third Slam for Gatland's Wales, the highest score draw ever in a Test match, and Scotland scored 6 tries, the first opposition to do so at Twickenham. Japan is only 6 months away ... can't wait!

SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 5

Well, here we go, final weekend of the 2019 Six Nations, and, whilst only the Welsh can win the Slam, three teams can win the title.

Italy v France ko 1230hrs

Whilst everyone sensible would love the Italians to turnover their European counterparts at home, completing a disastrous season for the French, but it is unlikely, and should be another wooden spoon for Conor O'Shea's team.

Wales v Ireland ko 1445hrs

A titanic "Kiwi" tussle awaits in both Schmidt's and Gatland's final Six Nations games, with Warren striving to be the first coach to win three Grand Slams. Ireland call up Tadhg Beirne to replace Henderson in the 2nd row, and also bring in Sean O'Brien and Rob Kearney (not bad subs) for Van der Flier and Larmour respectively. Wales remain unchanged from the Scotland game, meaning Liam Williams has miraculously recovered from his shoulder injury. The annual shenanigans over the stadium roof is in full flow, with Wales wanting it closed (claiming poor weather) and poker faced Ireland playing a waiting game, but will surely want it open. This game is why we love rugby...

It could happen....

The OATH reporting team are 80% predicting an Irish win, most by one score, with only the Welsh contingent following their heart. I was predicting a narrow Irish victory as think they are coming into form at just the right moment, but as England found out a few years ago, the final game of the tournament in Cardiff is a unique atmosphere, and Gatland seems to be able to channel the ridiculous level of emotion positively into his players and their performance.

Wales by one score ... heaven help us all

England v Scotland ko 1700hrs

If my Wales prediction comes good, then England will be playing for pride, having already secured 2nd place, which will help Scotland, as game will probably be less structured. If Ireland triumph, then England will know any win will see them become champions, a remarkable turnaround after 5th place last season. Eddie Jones brings in Jack Nowell in place of Cokanasiga on the wing, while there are also recalls for prop Ben Moon, centre Henry Slade and flanker Mark Wilson. Mario Itoje and Dan Robson miss out because of injury. 

Hamish Watson needs to win every ruck

Scotland will be delighted that Hamish Watson is fit enough to replace the injured Jamie Ritchie, with Sam Skinner of Exter also returning to the back row. Lock Ben Toolis is in for Jonny Gray in second row, with Sean Maitland and Byron McGuigan replacing injured duo Blair Kinghorn and Tommy Seymour respectively in the back three. Aussie Sam Johnston is included at centre at expense of Pete Horne. The Scots have not won at Twickers since 1983, although they did draw a game, and certainly should have won in 1999 (when they won the last Five Nations), but the odds are heavily against them, despite winning last season's fixture. 

The OATH reporting fraternity, unsurprisingly have gone with a bonus point win for England, except for Danny McGuinnes of Dublin who (clearly loves me so much it has affected his judgement) reckons the Scots will turn them over and hand the Irish the title. Whatever the outcome, enjoy one of the greatest days in sport, and indulge in a Guinness or two in advance of St Patrick's Day.

England by 12 points.

SIX NATIONS NEED TO THINK OF OTHERS

If the Six Nations countries reject the World Rugby proposals today to set up a Nations Championships, then the sport will not progress for years. The timing of CVC’s offer for 30% of the Six Nations for around £500m is deliberately timed to wreck World Rugby plans to gain the funds to expand the game further into both Tier 2 and 3 countries. 

CVC's bid also comes only three months after it bought 27% of Premiership Rugby for £230m, which could lead to a big conflict of interest for the money grabbing private equity boys. Imagine them dictating timing of fixtures for both competitions just to please a new rugby broadcaster like Amazon or Netflix ... yes, I am sorry, bye bye terrestrial coverage (we don't care about the fans, just the cash).

The Six Nations “Project Light” proposal involves pooling TV rights from the Six Nations and Autumn Internationals, which they believe can generate more revenue than the Nations Championship. The Northern Hemisphere nations obviously do not have the bargaining power of the Six Nations, so support the World Rugby proposal. What the Six Nations need to remember is that they need these countries support for Project Light - imagine NZ boycotting its annual trip to Twickenham? Fixtures against Georgia, Fiji and Samoa, whilst absolutely necessary, will not please fans, broadcasters or union.

It is simple for me, the Six Nations needs to modernise, embrace relegation and be one part of a bigger, global tournament. Anyone who loves rugby, should want the sport played by as many people as possible in as many countries as possible. And if Japan, USA or Pacific Islands replace Wales, New Zealand and Australia amongst the rugby elite, then so be it.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 4: A TALE OF MISSED TACKLES

So Wales Grand Slam train keeps a rollin, thanks to a one score win over Scotland, maintaining Gatland's 11/11 unbeaten record against the Scots. Only Ireland can derail them now at the Principality on Saturday. England predictably routed Italy, scoring eight tries and 50+ points in the process, and can still win the Six Nations if Ireland beat Wales, as thanks to superior bonus points they are only one point behind the undefeated table leaders. And let's not forget, that if Ireland do beat the Welsh, and the Scots overcome England at Twickenham for the first time since 1983, they could also retain the Six Nations trophy they won so convincingly last year.

Scotland once again underperformed in the first half of a test match, allowing Wales in for two relatively soft tries, especially the Josh Adams effort, where Kinghorn missed a relatively straightforward one on one tackle (after the pass Adams received looked suspiciously forward). Then Pete Horne failed with an offensive tackle 10m out to prevent Jonathan Davies from scoring Wales' second try. The Scots rallied in the second half, despite losing Seymour and Kinghorn to injury, with replacements McGuigan and Hastings helping them finally get over the gainline.

Jonathan Davies ... like a fine red he gets better with age

The Scottish forwards started to gain yardage, especially Dell and Watson, but despite all the possession and territory, they could only score a single try, thanks to the Shaun Edwards inspired Welsh defence, which was clinical. It was also cynical at times, and how the referee did not card the Welsh for persistent offside or slowing the ball down is anyone's guess. Wales won ugly again, and, if they do win the Slam,will not be the best Welsh team to win all their matches, but certainly have set new standards in defence and mental strength, and how Gatland has successfully pulled together players from four underperforming Welsh franchises is nothing short of a miracle.

England's "Pacific Island" inspired backline cut loose against the sorry Italians, who could not cope with the multiple strike runners of Vunipola, Tuilagi, Cokanasiga, Te'o and Daly. They did not help themselves however, gifting the opposition at least half of their eight tries, with two clearing kick charge downs and many missed one on one tackles, something a Tier 1 nation should not be guilty of ever. With England 31 - 7 up with an hour to go, the game went flat, not the first time England has lost its concentration in the second half, but luckily Italian mistakes handed them back the initiative once more. There were plenty of positives for the English, with Genge, Kruis and Daly all having a fine games, although Shields was quiet again (despite his scores) and Cokanasiga was badly out of position defensively for Italy's tries. England move onto Scotland next week, where last year's loss appears to be still hurting them, so will be seeking to put 50+ points on a weakened Scottish side and hope Ireland do them a favour in Cardiff.

Is Big Joe the new Jonah Lomu?

Ireland regained some of their NZ beating form for the first time since being battered by England on the opening weekend, in easily overcoming a poor French team. Ireland recalled six forwards to their pack after the Italy game, with Ryan, Henderson and Best all putting in good performances. Ireland were 26 - 0 up before two late tries put a gloss on the scoreline. France had no answers to the wile and cunning of Sexton, and the pace of Larmour and Earls (the postman, who always delivers). France, who, despite naming an unchanged side (for first time ever?) could not repeat their improved home performance against Scotland, now travel to Rome to avoid the humiliation of defeat (surely possible...). Ireland, in Joe Schmidt's last ever Six Nations game, will want to deny Wales their Slam, and give themselves the chance to win the Championship, should the Scots turn water into whisky at Twickenham.

SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 4

Scotland v Wales ko 1415hrs Saturday

Wales replace the injured Cory Hill with Adam Beard in the second row, with Jake Ball coming onto the bench, the only changes to the squad that beat England two weeks ago. Gareth Anscombe, again starts at fly half ahead of Dan Biggar. Even though Wales are going for the Slam, and Gatland has never lost to the Scots, it will be interesting to see how the 13 Welsh players affected by the mooted Ospreys-Scarlets merger react tomorrow. Not sure why the clubs decided to go public before the end of the tournament, but nothing surprises me with rugby administrators any more.

Adam Beard, the only change in Wales starting XV tomorrow

Scotland make four changes to the team that lost to France in Paris, with Finn Russell and WP Nel returning from injury, and Ali Price and Darcy Graham replacing Greig Laidlaw and Sean Maitland respectively. In the forwards, Magnus Bradbury is retained to bring some bulk to the mobile back row of Josh Strauss and Jamie Ritchie, an area where the Welsh are strong. 

Out wide, Peter Horne moves to 12 to accommodate Russell, giving them two good attackers and distributors, which should see Grigg, Kinghorn and the wings get plenty of ball. Sam Johnson drops out of the squad altogether, with Byron McGuigan coming onto the bench as backs cover, alongside the specialist half backs in Laidlaw and Adam Hastings. Scotland would love to spoil the Welsh Grand Slam dream in Gats final season. If they can play without fear, win some quick ball, especially at the breakdown and lineout, put the Welsh under sustained pressure, and get the crowd behind them, then they will score points, but can they deliver over 80 minutes?

Prediction: Scotland by 5

England v Italy ko 1645hrs Saturday

Eddie Jones has thrown caution to the wind and made quite a few changes to the squad that lost to Wales last time out. The England backline has an international flavour to it, with Ben Te'o and Joe Cokanasiga joining Manu Tuilagi in the starting lineup, with the half backs, Farrell and Youngs unchanged - hopefully Robson will get more gametime at scrum half off the bench. Up front, Genge, Launchbury and Shields all come in, with Moon and Wilson dropping to the bench and Lawes and Itoje out injured. England's game plan is clear, to bully Italy in all areas, not just upfront, although they also have plenty of pace in the front row, back row and back three. The front row contest will be attritional with Sinckler and Genge in the thick of it for sure.

Ellis Genge (left) will bring further mobility and aggression to the front row

Italy, after an impressive first half performance against Ireland, bring Parisse and Negri back into the pack following injury, and give hooker, Luca Bigi, his first start. Hard to believe it was only 2 years ago since Italy caused "ruckgate" at Twickenham, which some English players have still not recovered from. They will want quick ball, to break up the game, and move the heavy English forwards and backs around the park. Connor O'Shea is a smart coach, and Benetton deserve their lofty Pro 14 league position, so expect Italy to still be in the contest at 60 minutes, only for England to stretch away.

Prediction: England by 18

WORLD RUGBY PROPOSES NEW COMPETITION

All global rugby nations split into two conferences, a European one and a Rest of the World one, with each conference split into three divisions based on world ranking. All teams in the Division 1 of each conference will play against each other annually for points to win the division, gain promotion or avoid relegation. The same with Division 2 and Division 3. Division 1 in European Conference will be made up of current Six Nations countries with Division 1 from ROW Conference coming from current teams in Rugby Championship (plus two other countries based on world ranking). The top two teams in each conference in each division will then enter a play off, with the winners playing a final to determine the Division winners. This will mean a maximum number of international games of 11 per team per season, which is not far off what Wales (for example) would play currently in Six Nations (5 games) and Autumn Internationals (4 games) plus summer tour. This competition would not be played in World Cup years, and there would be no promotion or relegation in a Lions year.

Have a look at the enclosed video and make up your own mind. I was a sceptic, but having thought about it, am now broadly in favour as it will make all matches meaningful and expose some Tier 2 nations to more Tier 1 rugby. The clubs (especially in England and France) will not like it as players from the nations involved in playoffs will be absent for up to six consecutive weeks in the Autumn, and some players have already expressed concern regards travel required, burnout and injury recovery, and it will obviously favour those nations with greater strength in depth. Home and away advantage will be a major factor in influencing the outcome, especially when Northern Hemisphere teams play their Southern counterparts. And clearly the Six Nations countries and organisers have always resisted relegation so that sacred cow will need to be slaughtered.

https://www.world.rugby/video/403128