RWC 2019: AND SO IT BEGINS...

Wow, it is really here, the RWC 2019 kicks off in a few hours time with the hosts Japan taking on Russia. A nation expects, and it will take a very good Scotland performance to deny the hosts, the Brave Blossoms their first ever QF spot, where they will take on the might of New Zealand or South Africa. The Scotland game will be their cup final, and OATH will have their very own Alan "EJ" Doyle at the game to bring us a unique insight into the build up, the contest on the pitch and the post match festivities.

The most open RWC ever? I am not sure, the semi finalists four years ago were all from Southern Hemisphere, and that could happen again, although England have a good chance of getting that far this time at the expense of Argentina and Wales (who they will probably have to beat along the way). Ireland's chances of reaching their first ever semi-final appear to be receding by the day, especially as their form is poor, and they have key injuries to Henshaw and Kearney for the Scotland game this weekend (a must win for the Scots if they are to take the pressure off the Japan fixture).

France make a late replacement to their squad...

Wales can beat anyone with a fully fit XV, but, without Webb, Faletau and Anscombe do not have the strength in depth and quality to make it beyond the quarter finals. Unlike Ireland, South Africa are peaking at the right moment, and are my joint favourites with New Zealand, who will be unsurprisingly motivated to win three cups in a row. Australia will miss Skelton and Folau, but could still turnover Wales, and then lose to Fiji (who will beat a Tier 1 nation), but will not fear England in the QF's if it comes to pass. France are France, and will not make it out of the group, but we said that 8 years ago and they should have beaten the Kiwis in the final.

So, off the fence, who will make the QF's?
Well back in March of this year I predicted the following:

QF
England v Australia
New Zealand v Scotland 
Wales v France
Ireland v South Africa

I would now revise this to:

QF
England v Wales
South Africa v Ireland
Australia v Argentina
Scotland v New Zealand

Yes, England, Australia, Scotland and South Africa to win their respective pools.

SF
England v South Africa
Australia v New Zealand

F
New Zealand v South Africa (to win)

Very very excited, and to whet your appetite for what is to come, here is the official Japanese version of the infamous RWC theme song "World in Union" ... and so it begins

WORLD CUP WARM UPS

Off the horse for a while, but with a few Rugby Championship games already concluded, and World Cup squads soon to be announced, there is plenty to talk about.

2019 Rugby Championship results

·       20 July: South Africa 35 Australia 17

·       20 July: Argentina 16 New Zealand 20

·       27 July: New Zealand 16 South Africa 16 

·       27 July: Australia 16 Argentina 10

What have we learnt so far from the matches completed in the shortened Rugby Championship Well, it is clear that South Africa are peaking nicely, and will give anyone a run for their money, including the AB's in their group game. In fact, the Kiwi's are stuttering slightly, and without Beauden Barrett at 10, are not able to exploit organised defences at will like they used to - in fact Argentina should have beaten them (admittedly, NZ team not their strongest). Much is expected of Argentina, after their Super Rugby franchise's good showing this season - however, they do need to be more ruthless and take their opportunities. Australia, are still in a state of flux, having lost Folau, but will be pleased Lealiifano is back after battling leukaemia and showing form. How they compete against NZ this weekend will provide a better guide as to where they really are.

Lealiifano scored 11 points to help Oz overcome Argentina

2019 Rugby Championship fixtures

·       10 August: Australia vs. New Zealand (10.45am; Optus Stadium, Perth, Western Australia; live on Sky Sports)

·       10 August: Argentina vs. South Africa (8.40pm; Padre Ernesto Martearena Stadium, Salta; live on Sky Sports)

2019 RWC warm-up matches

·       10 August: Ireland vs. Italy (2pm; Aviva Stadium, Dublin; live on Channel 4) 

·       11 August: England vs. Wales (2pm; Twickenham Stadium, London; live on Sky Sports) 

England take on Grand Slam champions, Wales, at home this weekend, and will announce their RWC squad soon afterwards. It appears Eddie has deemed Cipriani, Brown, Dombrandt, Te’o and Ben Spencer surplus to requirements, with Willi Heinz (recently qualified) now the second pick 9 behind Ben Youngs. Wales will have to make do without Faletau at no.8 after his broke his collar bone in training. Ireland take on Italy and will announce their 31 man squad on 8th September.

·       17 August: New Zealand vs. Australia (8.35am; live on Sky Sports)

·       17 August: Wales vs. England (2.15pm; Principality Stadium, Cardiff; live on Sky Sports) 

·       17 August: South Africa vs. Argentina (4.05pm; live on Sky Sports)

·       17 August: Italy vs. Russia (5.25pm)

·       17 August: France vs Scotland (8pm; Allianz Riviera, Nice; live on Premier Sports) 

·       24 August: Scotland vs. France (1.10pm; BT Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh; live on Premier Sports)

·       24 August: England vs Ireland (3pm; Twickenham Stadium, London; live on Sky Sports) 

·       30 August: France vs. Italy (8.10pm)

·       31 August: Wales vs. Ireland (2.30pm; Principality Stadium, Cardiff; live on Channel 4) 

·       31 August: Georgia vs. Scotland (5pm; Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi; live on Premier Sports) 

·       6 September: Japan vs. South Africa (11.15am)

·       6 September: Scotland vs. Georgia (7.30pm; BT Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh; live on Premier Sports)

·       6 September: England vs. Italy (7.45pm; St James’ Park, Newcastle; live on Sky Sports) 

·       7 September: New Zealand vs. Tonga (3.35am)

·       7 September: Australia vs. Samoa (10.30am)

·       7 September: Ireland vs. Wales (2pm; Aviva Stadium, Dublin; live on Channel 4)

BLOODGATE 10 YEARS ON

Riveting podcast from BBC on Bloodgate saga at Harlequins 10 years on featuring Ugo Monye, Danny Care and Tom Williams, all who were there that fateful day.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0763rvt

CUP FINALS COME EARLY THIS WEEKEND

Fantastic Friday this week sees some vital games in both the English Premiership and Pro 14, the outcomes of which will have a big impact on who qualifies for Europe or who gets relegated.

Newcastle v Leicester

Only five points now separate Newcastle (bottom with 29 points) and Leicester (34 points) who play each other on Friday night in the North East. Leicester appear in freefall, and despite having all their English internationals now back from Six Nations duty, defensively looked very disorganised against Exeter last weekend. They look like a disparate bunch of individuals rather than a professional team. And with Tom Youngs being sent off in that game, they may not see him again this season, which will hurt them leadership wise, especially as his brother, Ben, is already absent with injury. Still, players like Tuilagi, May and Ford need to step up and set an example for their less high profile team mates.

Tom Youngs suspension could be critical for Leicester

Newcastle, with ex Leicester heroes like Dean Richards as coach, Vereneki Goneva, the flying Fijian, on the wing, and Toby Flood at 10, will have added motivation to inflict more pain on their old club. Despite narrowly missing out on a losing bonus point to Sarries last weekend, Newcastle competed strongly up front, and with John Hardie and Mark Wilson in the back row, will not be short of possession. If they can win front foot ball for the likes of Sinotti, Harris and Goneva they will test Leicester's fragile defence, and in Takulua, they have a 80%+ kicker. A win is imperative for both teams in a true 8 point game.

Edinburgh v Ulster
Benetton v Munster

Edinburgh's second half performance against Scarlets last weekend was sheer quality - being 12 points down at half time against a very good Scarlets team with all their Grand Slam stars back - as they scored 20 unanswered points to win the game and deny the Welsh province a valuable losing point. With Ulster being comfortably beaten by Glasgow Warriors, and Benetton drawing with Leinster, this narrowed the gap in Pro14 Conference B between Edinburgh and the Italian province to 1 point, and between Edinburgh and Ulster to 3 points, meaning this Friday's fixture at Murrayfield is now massive.

Jonathan Davies was superb on Friday night against Edinburgh

If Edinburgh win (with a bonus point) they will then be 2 points ahead of Ulster, and in a strong position to secure that valuable 2nd league position going into the final weekend, where they play Glasgow, who will need to also win their game to secure 2nd place in Conference A. However, if Benetton beat Munster at home (a week before their Heineken semi final) then, with only Zebre to beat on the final weekend, they will then be favourites to finish 2nd behind Leinster, and secure home advantage for the play off against the 3rd place team in Conference A (possibly Connacht). But, if Ulster can beat Edinburgh this weekend, or secure a losing bonus point, then they will be in the driving seat themselves for that 2nd place, as they face Leinster (at home) in their final fixture, who have already won Conference B (and are still in Heineken Cup). If Ulster are victorious this Friday, it could mean Edinburgh will only finish 4th in Conference B, forcing them into a play off with the team that finishes 4th in Conference A (Blues or Ospreys) for that final 7th Pro14 Heineken spot.

CHAMPIONS CUP QUARTER FINAL REVIEW

Edinburgh 13 Munster 17

I fancied this game so much I took the whole family up for the weekend, and, along with 11,000 Munster fans, was not disappointed. Edinburgh, under Cockers, are a formidable side, especially up front, and had won 17 from 19 previous home games. They started off like a train, and despite gallant Munster defence, should have been 6-9 points ahead in the first 20 minutes, choosing to kick to the corners to keep the pressure on, rather than take the easier penalty option. In a single score margin game, this would come back to haunt them later, as did the failure to capitalise on Munster having a man in the bin. In fact, Munster scored the first try of the game with only 14, when the (French) ref adjudged that an Edinburgh hand had knocked on a Murray box kick 10m from the line (looked dubious from stands 20m away). Munster made a mess of the scrum, but won the ball, but with no flanker, Pyrgos was allowed to stand next to Murray as he passed the ball out wide, knocking it on in the process. The (French) ref adjudged the offence a penalty (so a deliberate slapdown rather than an attempted intercept) which was harsh. If the Munster 8 had popped the ball to his scrum half, Pyrgos would not have had the opportunity to get near the ball. Anyway, move on. As Earls quickly gathered the ball and took a quick tap, his path to the line was made easier by Murray judo throwing his opposite number to the floor. I am not sure whether he thought Pyrgos had the ball, but regardless it was reckless and should have been referred to the (French) TMO, just as Liam Willams' retaliation caused Sarries try to be ruled out by the (English) ref last week. Earls sauntered over unimpeded and Munster were ahead.

Brian Jacks could not have done better than the Murray judo throw

Edinburgh equalised not long after through a Chris Dean try, and then followed another moment of controversy when Conway took out Darcy Graham in the air, causing him to land on his back. Admittedly, Conway only had his eyes (and hands, briefly) on the ball, and did not see Graham coming, but he lost the contest, and therefore, by the letter of the law, had the responsibility to land Graham safely. The (French) ref penalised Conway but did not issue a yellow, which impressed the home crowd no end. It didn't look any better than Stuart Hogg's aerial challenge on Biggar a few years back, for which he got a red, but anyway move on. Just before half time, Jaco van der Walt kicked Edinburgh ahead for a deserved 13 -10 half time lead. The second half was more even, with both teams getting into the opposition 22 but failing to score. Edinburgh had the ball in hands of both wingers, and looked the more dangerous, however, again it was Munster who scored a try against the run of play. Following a soft late hit on the Edinburgh fly half, the ref awarded a penalty on halfway, which would have given the Scottish club a good try scoring opportunity. For some reason, Schoeman the loose head, who was having a stormer, decided to bump Berne with his shoulder as he ran past. Berne did a Salah and claimed mortal wounding, which caused the (French) TMO to wake up and alert the ref, who subsequently reversed the decision. Munster kicked to the corner, and Earls outstripped the Edinburgh cover to score out wide.

Earls excellent finish for winning try

Keith Earls is a favourite of mine. He consistently produces MOM performances for province and country, and, similar to Ben Smith of NZ, does the basics better than anyone. His handling, running lines, defence, decision making and finishing are simply awesome. What followed was multiple waves of patient Edinburgh attack, and phenomenal Munster defence. How neither side made an error in attack or defence in the last 10 minutes was astonishing, and testament to the fitness and mental strength of both teams. In the end, Munster closed out a tight win, with their European experience on the road, and better management of the (French) ref being the difference. Not a classic, with only three tries scored, but a really good contest between two decent sides. Edinburgh should have won the game, but are mixing it with the big boys now, and will learn from the experience. Munster face Sarries in England next up, and will need to create more in attack if they are to progress to their third final.

JAPAN WORLD CUP REVIEW

So what does the Six Nations outcome mean to our projections for Rugby World Cup in Japan in 6 months time?

(1) Wales' Slam means they could win it, as having put together an unbeaten 14 match run, they have clearly showed they could win the 7 consecutive games required to lift the trophy. That now means there are (probably) six teams in the mix, from NZ, Australia and South Africa to England, Ireland and now Wales.

(2) Whilst Scotland will not win the tournament, having put 38 unanswered points in 55 minutes on England at home, they could have an important influence on the QF or SF line ups - Ireland will certainly be feeling less comfortable about their head to head group fixture on that opening weekend of the tournament. And if the Scots win Group A, they avoid NZ in the Quarter Finals, forcing the Irish to play the All Blacks, a match up everyone thinks will not happen until the final.

(3) England, despite winning the first half of every game, showed their mental frailty and lack of leadership under pressure persists from the Autumn, in failing to close out games from a winning position against Wales and Scotland. This will give France some hope in the Group stages, as it will Australia, who they may face in the QF's.

Whilst the Top 8 seeds in the World rankings remain unchanged today versus when the Groups were originally drawn over a year ago, what is interesting is the rise of teams like Fiji (9th), Japan (11th) and Georgia (12th). What odds on Japan beating Scotland in their final group game (at altitude) to reach their first ever QF, or Fiji turning over Australia in the real Group of Death to make a QF against England?

The bookies would project the RWC Quarter Finalists to be as follows:

England v Australia
New Zealand v Scotland (or Ireland)
Wales v France
Ireland (or Scotland) v South Africa

This would then lead to England v NZ and Wales v Ireland SF's, with final being NZ v Ireland (top two teams ranked in the world).

The hopeless romantics would project the RWC Quarter Finalists to be slightly different:

France v Fiji
South Africa v Japan
Australia v Argentina
Ireland v New Zealand

This would then lead to France v South Africa and Australia v NZ SF's, with final being South Africa v New Zealand.

Summer warm up games will be upon us before you know it, so will publish a full list of dates in due course.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 5: WELSH SLAM

Super Saturday saw Wales overcome the emotion and a poor Irish performance to achieve the Grand Slam, Warren Gatland's third in total, making him the first coach to win three Grand Slams in Five or Six Nations history following 2008 and 2012 achievements. Gatland has now won 43 Six Nations matches, which is 13 more than anyone else, and Wales have now won their last 14 Test matches, a feat only England have bettered with 18 consecutive victories from 2015 - 17.

From the kick off, Wales looked up for the occasion, with the outstanding Hadleigh Parkes scoring a try after a few minutes. Ireland never recovered, and in terrible wet, windy conditions, Wales just controlled the tempo of the game and were ruthless in turning territory and pressure into points. Gareth Anscombe put in a masterful display of kicking, slotting 6 penalties under immense pressure, and, despite an early Stockdale run, Ireland only got on the scoreboard right at the death when 25 - 0 down. 

Gareth Anscombe kicked 20 points on Saturday

Most of Ireland's star names just didn't show up, including Sexton, who had a terrible game, but they are not a bad side (their #3 world ranking does not lie). Spare a thought for Joe Schmidt, the Ireland coach, who deserved a more competitive performance from his team - unfortunately his squad never recovered from being battered by England in the first game. And they need to find their mojo quickly in the RWC warm up games in the summer after a poor Six Nations tournament by their standards. Suddenly, Rory Best, Sean O'Brien, Rob Kearney and Cian Healey are starting to look old, but Ireland has some great young players coming through who gained valuable game time over the last few weeks, and also the Irish U20's won their Championship trophy so future looks brighter for them.

After 30 minutes in the final game of the weekend, England were 31 - 0 up on the Scots at Twickenham, and playing some awesome rugby, although the Scots poor defence helped enormously. Many of the away supporters were contemplating going to the bar (or home) during the half time break, when Stuart McNally (somehow) outpaced both May and Farrell for a consolation try just before the interval. What followed in the next 35 minutes was the most extraordinary passage of play I have ever seen at Twickenham, if anywhere. Scotland scored five unanswered tries to lead by 7 points going into the final 3 minutes of play. It was a combination of fantastic skill by Scotland (Finn Russell's pass to Maitland for the 4th try was better than last year's effort to Huw Jones) and England's defensive mistakes (a further kick chargedown, an intercept and woeful tackling). Sam Johnson's running line, sidestep (on Nowell) and handoff (on Daly) were simply epic, and Scotland's sixth try deserved to break the 1983 hoodoo. However, probably due to fatigue, Scotland allowed England to get from their own 22 up to the other end of the pitch in extra time and score under the posts to draw the match. Wow...no other word for it. I think both defence coaches will be nervous this week, but it was great entertainment for the neutral (and as good, if not better then any football comeback).

England stayed out at half time for a chat ... that worked well then

Scotland, who had a poor Six Nations tournament, where they were expecting to beat France, if not either Wales or Ireland at home, at least now have something positive to focus on (especially in attack). Thanks to the long injury list, fringe players like Darcy Graham, Ben Toolis, Magnus Bradbury, Sam Johnson and Adam Hastings have been exposed to more Test match rugby, so giving Gregor Townsend extra options for his RWC squad. Amd Scotland has never had many Test match warriors, but Finn Russell, Hamish Watson and Stuart McNally are getting close. 

Aussie Sam evades four England defenders to put Scotland ahead

England, once again choked under pressure in a big game, and they need to show the ability to concentrate for 80+ minutes, especially when comfortably in control of a game. It was their downfall against NZ in the Autumn, against Wales a few weeks ago and it reappeared here. Own Farrell is a world class player, but he self imploded mentally on Saturday, and should have been carded for his (no arms, high and late) tackle on Darcy Graham. Credit to Eddie Jones for taking him off, although, following two chargedowns and an intercept, he should have been replaced by Ford earlier. Had Laidlaw slotted that penalty, the game would have been out of reach. The challenge Eddie had is that Farrell is the captain and natural leader of the team, and there are not many others. Tuilagi is a wrecking ball of an inside centre, but does not communicate well and take pressure of his fly half. Ford or Slade are better wingmen, but Eddie favours brawn over brains. England may face Wales in a RWC QF so they need to fix it quickly in the summer, otherwise we might be watching a repeat of 2015.

Cheer up lads, you scored six tries at Twickers

So what a climax to this year's tournament - a third Slam for Gatland's Wales, the highest score draw ever in a Test match, and Scotland scored 6 tries, the first opposition to do so at Twickenham. Japan is only 6 months away ... can't wait!