SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 3

France v Scotland Saturday ko 1415hrs GMT

With Finn Russell mysteriously injured by the French last weekend, Peter Horne steps in at that key 10 position for the Scots. Although, as France has also picked a non fly half in the same position in 19 year old Romain Ntamack, the loss of Russell may not hurt Scotland as much as the absence of Stuart Hogg at fullback and WP Nel in front row.

Pete Horne picked at 10 for Scots on Saturday

Scotland are also forced to bring in Nick Grigg for Huw Jones at 13, also injured in the Ireland game, which means that on Saturday, in their backline, they will field only three players born in Scotland, with two players born in New Zealand, one born in Australia and the other in Nashville. In the pack, Magnus Bradbury makes a welcome return, especially as Ryan Wilson is injured, and the bench is strengthened by the return to fitness of Fraser Brown and Zander Fagerson in the front row. Josh Strauss has finally found his (South African) passport and Scotland will need him at his defensive best if they are to win in Paris for first time in 20 years.

France are seeking to avoid a third straight defeat in this year's tournament and an 11th loss in 14 games since Jacques Brunel was appointed in December 2017. Disappointingly for the Scots, despite changing both their half backs, they have decided to play key players in their specialist positions, with Yoann Huget returning to the wing after starting at full-back against England, and Gael Fickou also back in the centres after being on the wing. Brunel makes four changes in all to the England starting line up, with Racing 92's Wenceslas Lauret back on the flank, while Toulouse's Thomas Ramos makes his first start at full-back to earn only his second cap. 

Jacques Brunel, the French coach (this week anyway)

A must win game for both teams as they approach the halfway stage of the tournament, and avoid talk of a Wooden Spoon. Surely France cannot be as bad as they were last weekend? Surely Scotland have to fancy their chances against a disorganised, downbeat French team, who have never been easier to beat? I think Horne will fare better than his younger counterpart at 10, as he has a lot of familiar Glasgow faces outside him, but I think France will win ugly, in a tight game, edging the battle up front, especially in the loose. How Scotland miss Barclay and Watson in this area.

France by 7

Wales v England Saturday ko 1645hrs

England bring in Ben Moon in front row to cover for injured Mako Vunipola and also wing Jack Nowell for Chris Ashton. Ellie Genge, Joe Cokanasiga and Brad Shields come onto the bench. Wales, having made 10 starting changes the previous week against Italy, make a similar number for this cricual game. Gareth Anscombe edges out Dan Biggar at fly-half, Gareth Davies is back at 9, Cory Hill replaces Adam Beard at lock, Ken Owens and Rob Evans come back into the front row, George North and Hadleigh Parkes start out wide, and finally, Ross Moriarty and Justin Tipuric return to the back row.

Saturday will be the Great "Gats"by's last England battle

The hosts and visitors are the tournament's only two unbeaten teams and both can still win the Grand Slam. It is Warren Gatland's last game against England (will he replace Eddie?) so expect emotion. The roof of the Principality (allegedly) will be closed, Welsh fans may headbutt the English bus (on the way to the ground) and Max Boyce could make an appearance. It will be very patriotic, hostile and Welsh, but I think as England are playing rugby on a different planet at the moment, they will continue their good form and win convincingly. The difference may be the bench, where England can call on Launchbury, Shields, Robson, Ford and Cokanasiga, and Wales cannot, and they will miss Faletau and Halfpenny.

England by 12

UNNECESSARY INJURIES DEVALUE SIX NATIONS

Yes I am angry, and I have not even forked out for a ticket for any of the games this weekend. I do not understand how, rugby, as a sport, allows first pick international players, to play in the rest week between Six Nations games. This tournament is the biggest showcase for the game globally outside the RWC, so you want the best players competing against each other, not journeymen making games a foregone conclusion. Not only does it short change the armchair fans, many of whom prefer football, but always love joining in the patriotism of a Six Nations weekend, it is devaluing the proposition for the passionate travelling fan, who nowadays will fork out over £100 for a match ticket, plus travel, food and beverage (multiple).

Injuries are playing an increasingly important factor in match outcomes

And to add injury to insult, two of those players hurt playing for their clubs last weekend, Finn Russell (Scotland) and Dan Biggar (Wales) were playing against nationals from their international opposition this weekend. Yes, call it a conspiracy theory, but is it not a coincidence that two of the best fly halves the game has ever seen, did not get through their matches unscathed when playing French and English clubs respectively. Even, if these players escaped undamaged, the highly flaunted "player welfare" policy is thrown out of the window, expecting them to play two "Test" matches in less than a week. Fans want to see these players perform on the biggest stage, not an understudy. Scotland was especially impacted, with Greg Laidlaw, the captain of his country, also playing for his club, Clermont Auvergne, last weekend. as were Gary Graham, John Hardie (both Newcastle) and Josh Strauss, Byron McGuigan (both Sale). If Scotland fade in the last 20 minutes of the France game on Saturday, you will know why.

Finn Russell before his head injury last weekend

Yes, I am grumpy, but the game will not expand its global footprint, or penetrate new fans from other sports, if it does not do everything it can to look after its superstars, and ensure they participate in the big games. To progress, rugby needs more countries ranking outside the Top 4 to be able to compete with (and beat) the moneyed elite. As has been shown, injuries can affect even England, with 12 Premiership teams (and the biggest playing base of all), who only finished 5th in last year's Six Nations, but the other major Northern Hemisphere countries, Ireland & Wales (4 teams each) and Scotland & Italy (only 2 teams each) really feel the impact from the loss of key players in crucial positions.

With France in disarray, and with Russell pulling the strings at 10, Scotland had a real chance on Saturday of beating them away for the first time since 1999 - without him it will probably be business as usual. Disagree? Just think how England would cope without Farrell away from home, or Ireland without Sexton? And what of Wales? If Biggar is not fit to come off the bench against England to help close out a tight game, it could cost them a Grand Slam.

Rugby should wise up, and, like all great businesses, focus more on satisfying the needs of the supporter or fan, otherwise it will remain a minority sport for the rich, egotistical English or French club owner.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 2: ITALY V WALES

Wales made 10 changes to their starting team but still equalled their record run of 11 successive Test wins, and will now break a record set in 1910 if they beat England in Cardiff on 23rd February 2019. Centre Jonathan Davies captained Wales for the first time while flankers Thomas Young and Aaron Wainwright, wing Jonah Holmes and scrum-half Aled Davies all made their first Six Nations starts.

Despite all the changes and inexperience, Wales won comfortably, yet unconvincingly. Wales had all the possession and territory in the first half, but only had 4 penalties to show for it, They paid the price when Italy scored the first try after capitalising on a sliced Josh Adams kick, when the outstanding Steyn went over from the resulting lineout, and Italy were only 7 - 12 behind at halftime.

Josh Navidi won MOM showing Wales have good strength in depth in back row

Wales continued to struggle to convert pressure into points, until Liam Williams sliced through the Italian defence to set up a try for Josh Adams, and then Watkin scored a second following an Anscombe kick. Italy responded with a second try of their own, following a Tomasso Allan break to set up Padovani, and put Wales under great pressure in the closing stages, although realistically never looked like clawing back the two score deficit. 

So, Wales won ugly again, but failed to score a bonus point against the Italians, which may come back to haunt them if they beat England at home in a weeks' time, and then play Ireland for the Championship. Italy are now on a record of 19 losing matches in the Six Nations with their last victory coming against Scotland in February 2015, and their last home victory being Ireland six years ago.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 2: ENGLAND V FRANCE

I can't help thinking that if France were to put out a Toulouse team for the rest of the Six Nations, they would fare better than the current French international side. At least they would be organised and communicate with one another on the pitch, which France did none of on Sunday against England. YES, Jacques Brunel, the French coach selected a winger at full back, plus two centres on the wing, to combat England's impressive kick chase strategy, which worked so well against Ireland the week before. NO, the coach was not responsible for France constantly leaving acres of space behind the scrum half and breakdown, which England exploited from the the first minute onwards.

Damn those rosbifs, they played what was in front of them

I was an average fullback (being a superb scrum half) but I knew to stand opposite 10 and track the ball along the line to deter any kick in behind the centres, but also (if a kick did happen) to increase my chances of being first to the ball. I was not at the game, so did not have an aerial view from the stand, and therefore cannot comment on Huget's (or the wingers) positioning, but he was obviously not filling the space that England so readily exploited during the first half. Once Huget was substituted on 41 minutes by (quelle surprise) a specialist full back in Ramos, England had to change their tactics. Huget, to his credit, showed why he is in the team with a beautiful running line to split the English defence for Fickou's try, but, like Robbie Henshaw of Ireland, needs to be played in his specialist position to maximise his impact.

Yes chaps, happy to buy a hat trick jug

Rugby is a strange game - England with only one team in the last 8 of the European Champions Cup versus 2 from France & Scotland and 3 from Ireland, now look like the only side capable of beating NZ in the Autumn, far more so than Ireland or Wales. With all their Pacific Islanders fit and on top form, they will present Wales with a formidable challenge at the Principality in two weeks time, a game which will probably determine the Grand Slam winners. All credit to Eddie Jones, the coaching team and senior players like Farrell, Kruis and May, for making the nation proud again. However, it does not mean that England's name is etched already on the William Web Ellis Cup, as there is plenty of rugby to be played before Japan, and the Southern Hemisphere nations will be only start to panic if England's amazing form continues into their RWC warm up games. Remember, that four years ago England stuck 55 points on France and yet later that year crashed out of the World Cup at the group stages.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 2: SCOTLAND V IRELAND

First half was compelling viewing, high on accuracy, low on errors which contributed to entertaining rugby by both teams. The second half was the opposite. Laidlaw, the Scottish captain was clearly not happy with the referee, but he was not the reason Scotland lost another tight game where they dominated possession. Yes, Peter O'Mahoney should have been binned in the first half, either, for his late no arms tackle on Hogg (which may have ended his tournament), or for deliberate hands on ball off his feet 5m from the Irish line. But, No, Romain Poite was not responsible for Scotland gifting Ireland their first try, Seymour overrunning Jones' 2 on 1 pass at the end of the first half or numerous unforced knock ons or forward passes. Ireland got ahead early on (which Scotland needed to do) and never looked like losing, based on excellent defence and a very low error count. Scotland need to play less with their hearts and more with their heads - they ignored at least 3 kickable penalties in the first half, which would have put more pressure on Ireland in the second half, and they gave away silly penalties when under no pressure in the opposition half, allowing Ireland to clear their lines too easily.

Peter gave away his medal to this Irish fan so we forgive him

Scotland appear to have lost Ryan Wilson and (possibly) Stuart Hogg, two key players in key positions, for the France game, which will stretch their resources very thin, and may even impact on Glasgow's progress in the European Champions Cup at end of March. Ireland won ugly, and lost Sexton early on, but scored three tries away from home, conceding only one (an intercept), and are still in the Championship, with only Italy and France up next before Wales decider in Cardiff.

SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 2

Scotland v Ireland 1415hrs ko Saturday

Ireland's toughest test mentally since Grand Slam game last year. Can they beat Scotland away at Murrayfield after poor performance against England and with injuries to key players? If Scotland can repeat their victory two years ago it will be Gregor Townsend's finest ever moment and give them the edge for a repeat game in Japan. Scotland's bench is strong so it will be tight, and pretty feisty, as these teams have history from 1972, when Scotland refused to travel to Dublin to Busgate two years ago, when Ireland claimed the Scottish police delayed their bus.

Scotland will be competitive on Saturday

Ireland by 5

Italy v Wales 1645hrs ko Saturday

Italy had a rough ride for 70 minutes at Murrayfield last week but are improving under O'Shea. Wales should beware as they did not play well in Paris last week and having made 10 changes to that starting XV will not find it easy. If Italy get ahead early on, and the crowd come into play, Gats Grand Slam dream could be shattered...

Will Wales 10 changes come back to haunt them?

Wales by 10

England v France ko 1500hrs Sunday

The challenge England face is repeating last week's marvellous performance at home against inferior opposition. Yes France were dreadful in that second half but still led after 70 minutes and have some great young players coming through from their U20 team that won Junior RWC. If France get ahead early and silence the prawn sandwich brigade (Twickenham crowd) then it will be good contest.

Once more unto the breach mes amies

England by 10

SIX NATIONS WEEK 1 REVIEW: FRANCE V WALES

At half time, France were 16-0 ahead at home and cruising. Wales were dreadful for the first 40 minutes, missing tackles, knocking on under no pressure and even blowing an easy try scoring opportunity when Liam Williams blew a simple 3 on 1. To give France credit, their massive pack dominated and they played some lovely stuff in terrible conditions, scoring a couple of tries through Huget and Picamoles. However, if Parra had not missed a number of kicks, then France would have been 20+ points ahead, and it would have been game over.

Picamoles opens France's account in this year's Six Nations

Wales must have got a right roasting from Gatland and Edwards at half time, as six minutes after the restart, Josh Adams made an incisive break in midfield and Tomos Williams scored near the posts to narrow the gap. Less than five minutes later, the French lead was cut to two points, courtesy of a Huget error. George North chased an average speculative kick by Parkes, but managed to touch the ball down, after Huget lost control over his line.

Ooh la la ... George North enter stage left

With Biggar and Lopez exchanging penalties, the French still had a narrow lead going into the final ten minutes, and looked as if they were going to sneak only their second win in 8 games. However, their players had other ideas, and under no pressure in the Welsh half, French lock Sebastien Vahaamahina, decided to throw a high-risk miss-pass out wide, which George North easily picked off and ran half the length of the pitch to score the winning try. 

North intercepts that pass to win the game, and that Frenchman is involved again

It was clearly a leaving gift for Warren Gatland, on his last trip to the Stade de France with Wales, whom, despite their good Autumn record, had lost three out of five recent visits. Gats said before the game that if Wales won in Paris, a Grand Slam was a possibility, and with Ireland and England still to come in Cardiff, it could happen. I think they will lose one of these matches, plus Scotland away in Murrayfield, but what do I know? I thought Ireland would beat England.