SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 4

Scotland v Wales ko 1415hrs Saturday

Wales replace the injured Cory Hill with Adam Beard in the second row, with Jake Ball coming onto the bench, the only changes to the squad that beat England two weeks ago. Gareth Anscombe, again starts at fly half ahead of Dan Biggar. Even though Wales are going for the Slam, and Gatland has never lost to the Scots, it will be interesting to see how the 13 Welsh players affected by the mooted Ospreys-Scarlets merger react tomorrow. Not sure why the clubs decided to go public before the end of the tournament, but nothing surprises me with rugby administrators any more.

Adam Beard, the only change in Wales starting XV tomorrow

Scotland make four changes to the team that lost to France in Paris, with Finn Russell and WP Nel returning from injury, and Ali Price and Darcy Graham replacing Greig Laidlaw and Sean Maitland respectively. In the forwards, Magnus Bradbury is retained to bring some bulk to the mobile back row of Josh Strauss and Jamie Ritchie, an area where the Welsh are strong. 

Out wide, Peter Horne moves to 12 to accommodate Russell, giving them two good attackers and distributors, which should see Grigg, Kinghorn and the wings get plenty of ball. Sam Johnson drops out of the squad altogether, with Byron McGuigan coming onto the bench as backs cover, alongside the specialist half backs in Laidlaw and Adam Hastings. Scotland would love to spoil the Welsh Grand Slam dream in Gats final season. If they can play without fear, win some quick ball, especially at the breakdown and lineout, put the Welsh under sustained pressure, and get the crowd behind them, then they will score points, but can they deliver over 80 minutes?

Prediction: Scotland by 5

England v Italy ko 1645hrs Saturday

Eddie Jones has thrown caution to the wind and made quite a few changes to the squad that lost to Wales last time out. The England backline has an international flavour to it, with Ben Te'o and Joe Cokanasiga joining Manu Tuilagi in the starting lineup, with the half backs, Farrell and Youngs unchanged - hopefully Robson will get more gametime at scrum half off the bench. Up front, Genge, Launchbury and Shields all come in, with Moon and Wilson dropping to the bench and Lawes and Itoje out injured. England's game plan is clear, to bully Italy in all areas, not just upfront, although they also have plenty of pace in the front row, back row and back three. The front row contest will be attritional with Sinckler and Genge in the thick of it for sure.

Ellis Genge (left) will bring further mobility and aggression to the front row

Italy, after an impressive first half performance against Ireland, bring Parisse and Negri back into the pack following injury, and give hooker, Luca Bigi, his first start. Hard to believe it was only 2 years ago since Italy caused "ruckgate" at Twickenham, which some English players have still not recovered from. They will want quick ball, to break up the game, and move the heavy English forwards and backs around the park. Connor O'Shea is a smart coach, and Benetton deserve their lofty Pro 14 league position, so expect Italy to still be in the contest at 60 minutes, only for England to stretch away.

Prediction: England by 18

WORLD RUGBY PROPOSES NEW COMPETITION

All global rugby nations split into two conferences, a European one and a Rest of the World one, with each conference split into three divisions based on world ranking. All teams in the Division 1 of each conference will play against each other annually for points to win the division, gain promotion or avoid relegation. The same with Division 2 and Division 3. Division 1 in European Conference will be made up of current Six Nations countries with Division 1 from ROW Conference coming from current teams in Rugby Championship (plus two other countries based on world ranking). The top two teams in each conference in each division will then enter a play off, with the winners playing a final to determine the Division winners. This will mean a maximum number of international games of 11 per team per season, which is not far off what Wales (for example) would play currently in Six Nations (5 games) and Autumn Internationals (4 games) plus summer tour. This competition would not be played in World Cup years, and there would be no promotion or relegation in a Lions year.

Have a look at the enclosed video and make up your own mind. I was a sceptic, but having thought about it, am now broadly in favour as it will make all matches meaningful and expose some Tier 2 nations to more Tier 1 rugby. The clubs (especially in England and France) will not like it as players from the nations involved in playoffs will be absent for up to six consecutive weeks in the Autumn, and some players have already expressed concern regards travel required, burnout and injury recovery, and it will obviously favour those nations with greater strength in depth. Home and away advantage will be a major factor in influencing the outcome, especially when Northern Hemisphere teams play their Southern counterparts. And clearly the Six Nations countries and organisers have always resisted relegation so that sacred cow will need to be slaughtered.

https://www.world.rugby/video/403128

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 3: FRANCE V SCOTLAND

What really upsets Scottish fans is that for years they were not competitive, and so therefore player mistakes under international pressure were understandable, as they were simply not good enough. With two Scottish clubs in the QF of the Champions Cup, a Top 6 world ranking and 3rd place in last year's Six Nations (having beaten England), Scottish Rugby has never been in better health, so that excuse cannot be made for the manner of defeat on Saturday. Even being ravaged by injuries (out of a small playing base), is no defence for such a poor Scotland performance against a dispirited French team, who had only won 3 out of their last 18 games.

Scotland missed 35 tackles against France

Scotland needed a quick start, France got one. Scotland needed to score early, France did. Scotland needed to do the basics well, especially in defence, but missed multiple tackles for France's first try, which started from their own 22. Even when Huget was yellow carded in the first half, Scotland could not take advantage, and were very lucky to only be 3 - 10 down at halfway. Scotland needed to score first after half time, but France scored after a minute of the second half with a flowing move, including a successful chip and chase from Bastareaud, which summed up the game.

Chip and chase ... really?

Gregor Townsend, the Scotland coach was so unimpressed by his team, that he emptied virtually the whole bench after 64 minutes. Encouragingly, Price and Hastings at half backs managed to exploit the quick ball Scotland's forwards started producing, but the team lacked the accuracy needed to score points and get them back in the game. By the time Scotland got a consolation try, France were out of sight, eventually securing the bonus point in the 87th minute. France won 27-10, but having had a few tries ruled out by the TMO, could have won by 30 points, such was the gulf.

Dupont, the new French generation is here

France clearly have some good young players, especially out wide in Dupont, Ntamack and Ramos, who cut the opposition to shreds at times. However, Scotland need to pick themselves up in two week's time against Wales at home, and play like their lives depend upon it - the fans will expect nothing less. Hopefully Finn Russell will be back to make them less predictable. France will have a spring in their step going to Dublin to play Ireland, with nothing to lose, exactly when they are at their most dangerous.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 3: WALES V ENGLAND

Well, well, the only consistency in this tournament is the inconsistency of the leading Six Nations teams. Wales pulled an unexpected second half out of the bag, France pulled out an unexpected performance for 60 minutes and Italy led Ireland unexpectedly at half time. With the World Cup looming, where the winner will need to win seven games in a row, what will the Southern Hemisphere countries be thinking at the moment, with England and Ireland looking vulnerable in a one off game away from their home ground.

Anyway, back to the big match at the Principality, which I watched in a pub in Malvern, an hour from the Welsh border, with a good mix of supporters. It was a strange game, with England dominant in the first half, especially in the contact area, but only being 10-3 ahead, resulting in my halftime assessment to my Welsh friend of "England look too good, only a matter of time" - what did I know?

Liam Williams caught everything on Saturday

A combination of improved pressure on England's half backs, resulting in poor kick execution (and then decision making) and smart tactics by the Welsh forwards, sucking in the English defenders in their 22, and nullifying their defensive line speed out wide, which led to a frustrated English side giving away too many penalties, allowing Wales to turn possession into points and claw their way back into the game. Then, Gatland's inspired substitution of Anscombe for Biggar, the test match warrior at fly half, resulted in two late scores to swing the match Wales' way, denying England even a losing bonus point.

Eddie Jones and his England's leadership team seem unable to react to unexpected Wales' tactics in second half, and could find no plan B, and also, when England were crying out for fresh legs, minds and decision making in the last 15 minutes, why were Robson or Ford not given a chance? Eddie had correctly substituted Kyle Sinckler after 57 minutes (before he was given a yellow) so why freeze at the crucial moment and persist with both Farrell and Youngs, when momentum was swinging Wales' way.

Kyle Sinckler was tactically removed by Eddie Jones but had a fine first half

If Wales are to win the Six Nations Championship, having failed to gain a bonus point in previous two home games, they will have to remain undefeated for the Slam, as England, with only two games remaining against Italy and Scotland look set to gain maximum points taking them 20 in total. Wales, with only a current two point advantage, will then have to beat both Scotland (away) and Ireland (home), and benefit from the three point bonus (for winning all games) to take the title in Gatland's final season. Post battle on Saturday evening, England fans were very aware of the maths, whereas Wales fans (having beaten the auld enemy) couldn't have cared less.

SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 3

France v Scotland Saturday ko 1415hrs GMT

With Finn Russell mysteriously injured by the French last weekend, Peter Horne steps in at that key 10 position for the Scots. Although, as France has also picked a non fly half in the same position in 19 year old Romain Ntamack, the loss of Russell may not hurt Scotland as much as the absence of Stuart Hogg at fullback and WP Nel in front row.

Pete Horne picked at 10 for Scots on Saturday

Scotland are also forced to bring in Nick Grigg for Huw Jones at 13, also injured in the Ireland game, which means that on Saturday, in their backline, they will field only three players born in Scotland, with two players born in New Zealand, one born in Australia and the other in Nashville. In the pack, Magnus Bradbury makes a welcome return, especially as Ryan Wilson is injured, and the bench is strengthened by the return to fitness of Fraser Brown and Zander Fagerson in the front row. Josh Strauss has finally found his (South African) passport and Scotland will need him at his defensive best if they are to win in Paris for first time in 20 years.

France are seeking to avoid a third straight defeat in this year's tournament and an 11th loss in 14 games since Jacques Brunel was appointed in December 2017. Disappointingly for the Scots, despite changing both their half backs, they have decided to play key players in their specialist positions, with Yoann Huget returning to the wing after starting at full-back against England, and Gael Fickou also back in the centres after being on the wing. Brunel makes four changes in all to the England starting line up, with Racing 92's Wenceslas Lauret back on the flank, while Toulouse's Thomas Ramos makes his first start at full-back to earn only his second cap. 

Jacques Brunel, the French coach (this week anyway)

A must win game for both teams as they approach the halfway stage of the tournament, and avoid talk of a Wooden Spoon. Surely France cannot be as bad as they were last weekend? Surely Scotland have to fancy their chances against a disorganised, downbeat French team, who have never been easier to beat? I think Horne will fare better than his younger counterpart at 10, as he has a lot of familiar Glasgow faces outside him, but I think France will win ugly, in a tight game, edging the battle up front, especially in the loose. How Scotland miss Barclay and Watson in this area.

France by 7

Wales v England Saturday ko 1645hrs

England bring in Ben Moon in front row to cover for injured Mako Vunipola and also wing Jack Nowell for Chris Ashton. Ellie Genge, Joe Cokanasiga and Brad Shields come onto the bench. Wales, having made 10 starting changes the previous week against Italy, make a similar number for this cricual game. Gareth Anscombe edges out Dan Biggar at fly-half, Gareth Davies is back at 9, Cory Hill replaces Adam Beard at lock, Ken Owens and Rob Evans come back into the front row, George North and Hadleigh Parkes start out wide, and finally, Ross Moriarty and Justin Tipuric return to the back row.

Saturday will be the Great "Gats"by's last England battle

The hosts and visitors are the tournament's only two unbeaten teams and both can still win the Grand Slam. It is Warren Gatland's last game against England (will he replace Eddie?) so expect emotion. The roof of the Principality (allegedly) will be closed, Welsh fans may headbutt the English bus (on the way to the ground) and Max Boyce could make an appearance. It will be very patriotic, hostile and Welsh, but I think as England are playing rugby on a different planet at the moment, they will continue their good form and win convincingly. The difference may be the bench, where England can call on Launchbury, Shields, Robson, Ford and Cokanasiga, and Wales cannot, and they will miss Faletau and Halfpenny.

England by 12

UNNECESSARY INJURIES DEVALUE SIX NATIONS

Yes I am angry, and I have not even forked out for a ticket for any of the games this weekend. I do not understand how, rugby, as a sport, allows first pick international players, to play in the rest week between Six Nations games. This tournament is the biggest showcase for the game globally outside the RWC, so you want the best players competing against each other, not journeymen making games a foregone conclusion. Not only does it short change the armchair fans, many of whom prefer football, but always love joining in the patriotism of a Six Nations weekend, it is devaluing the proposition for the passionate travelling fan, who nowadays will fork out over £100 for a match ticket, plus travel, food and beverage (multiple).

Injuries are playing an increasingly important factor in match outcomes

And to add injury to insult, two of those players hurt playing for their clubs last weekend, Finn Russell (Scotland) and Dan Biggar (Wales) were playing against nationals from their international opposition this weekend. Yes, call it a conspiracy theory, but is it not a coincidence that two of the best fly halves the game has ever seen, did not get through their matches unscathed when playing French and English clubs respectively. Even, if these players escaped undamaged, the highly flaunted "player welfare" policy is thrown out of the window, expecting them to play two "Test" matches in less than a week. Fans want to see these players perform on the biggest stage, not an understudy. Scotland was especially impacted, with Greg Laidlaw, the captain of his country, also playing for his club, Clermont Auvergne, last weekend. as were Gary Graham, John Hardie (both Newcastle) and Josh Strauss, Byron McGuigan (both Sale). If Scotland fade in the last 20 minutes of the France game on Saturday, you will know why.

Finn Russell before his head injury last weekend

Yes, I am grumpy, but the game will not expand its global footprint, or penetrate new fans from other sports, if it does not do everything it can to look after its superstars, and ensure they participate in the big games. To progress, rugby needs more countries ranking outside the Top 4 to be able to compete with (and beat) the moneyed elite. As has been shown, injuries can affect even England, with 12 Premiership teams (and the biggest playing base of all), who only finished 5th in last year's Six Nations, but the other major Northern Hemisphere countries, Ireland & Wales (4 teams each) and Scotland & Italy (only 2 teams each) really feel the impact from the loss of key players in crucial positions.

With France in disarray, and with Russell pulling the strings at 10, Scotland had a real chance on Saturday of beating them away for the first time since 1999 - without him it will probably be business as usual. Disagree? Just think how England would cope without Farrell away from home, or Ireland without Sexton? And what of Wales? If Biggar is not fit to come off the bench against England to help close out a tight game, it could cost them a Grand Slam.

Rugby should wise up, and, like all great businesses, focus more on satisfying the needs of the supporter or fan, otherwise it will remain a minority sport for the rich, egotistical English or French club owner.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 2: ITALY V WALES

Wales made 10 changes to their starting team but still equalled their record run of 11 successive Test wins, and will now break a record set in 1910 if they beat England in Cardiff on 23rd February 2019. Centre Jonathan Davies captained Wales for the first time while flankers Thomas Young and Aaron Wainwright, wing Jonah Holmes and scrum-half Aled Davies all made their first Six Nations starts.

Despite all the changes and inexperience, Wales won comfortably, yet unconvincingly. Wales had all the possession and territory in the first half, but only had 4 penalties to show for it, They paid the price when Italy scored the first try after capitalising on a sliced Josh Adams kick, when the outstanding Steyn went over from the resulting lineout, and Italy were only 7 - 12 behind at halftime.

Josh Navidi won MOM showing Wales have good strength in depth in back row

Wales continued to struggle to convert pressure into points, until Liam Williams sliced through the Italian defence to set up a try for Josh Adams, and then Watkin scored a second following an Anscombe kick. Italy responded with a second try of their own, following a Tomasso Allan break to set up Padovani, and put Wales under great pressure in the closing stages, although realistically never looked like clawing back the two score deficit. 

So, Wales won ugly again, but failed to score a bonus point against the Italians, which may come back to haunt them if they beat England at home in a weeks' time, and then play Ireland for the Championship. Italy are now on a record of 19 losing matches in the Six Nations with their last victory coming against Scotland in February 2015, and their last home victory being Ireland six years ago.