SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 5

Well, here we go, final weekend of the 2019 Six Nations, and, whilst only the Welsh can win the Slam, three teams can win the title.

Italy v France ko 1230hrs

Whilst everyone sensible would love the Italians to turnover their European counterparts at home, completing a disastrous season for the French, but it is unlikely, and should be another wooden spoon for Conor O'Shea's team.

Wales v Ireland ko 1445hrs

A titanic "Kiwi" tussle awaits in both Schmidt's and Gatland's final Six Nations games, with Warren striving to be the first coach to win three Grand Slams. Ireland call up Tadhg Beirne to replace Henderson in the 2nd row, and also bring in Sean O'Brien and Rob Kearney (not bad subs) for Van der Flier and Larmour respectively. Wales remain unchanged from the Scotland game, meaning Liam Williams has miraculously recovered from his shoulder injury. The annual shenanigans over the stadium roof is in full flow, with Wales wanting it closed (claiming poor weather) and poker faced Ireland playing a waiting game, but will surely want it open. This game is why we love rugby...

It could happen....

The OATH reporting team are 80% predicting an Irish win, most by one score, with only the Welsh contingent following their heart. I was predicting a narrow Irish victory as think they are coming into form at just the right moment, but as England found out a few years ago, the final game of the tournament in Cardiff is a unique atmosphere, and Gatland seems to be able to channel the ridiculous level of emotion positively into his players and their performance.

Wales by one score ... heaven help us all

England v Scotland ko 1700hrs

If my Wales prediction comes good, then England will be playing for pride, having already secured 2nd place, which will help Scotland, as game will probably be less structured. If Ireland triumph, then England will know any win will see them become champions, a remarkable turnaround after 5th place last season. Eddie Jones brings in Jack Nowell in place of Cokanasiga on the wing, while there are also recalls for prop Ben Moon, centre Henry Slade and flanker Mark Wilson. Mario Itoje and Dan Robson miss out because of injury. 

Hamish Watson needs to win every ruck

Scotland will be delighted that Hamish Watson is fit enough to replace the injured Jamie Ritchie, with Sam Skinner of Exter also returning to the back row. Lock Ben Toolis is in for Jonny Gray in second row, with Sean Maitland and Byron McGuigan replacing injured duo Blair Kinghorn and Tommy Seymour respectively in the back three. Aussie Sam Johnston is included at centre at expense of Pete Horne. The Scots have not won at Twickers since 1983, although they did draw a game, and certainly should have won in 1999 (when they won the last Five Nations), but the odds are heavily against them, despite winning last season's fixture. 

The OATH reporting fraternity, unsurprisingly have gone with a bonus point win for England, except for Danny McGuinnes of Dublin who (clearly loves me so much it has affected his judgement) reckons the Scots will turn them over and hand the Irish the title. Whatever the outcome, enjoy one of the greatest days in sport, and indulge in a Guinness or two in advance of St Patrick's Day.

England by 12 points.

SIX NATIONS NEED TO THINK OF OTHERS

If the Six Nations countries reject the World Rugby proposals today to set up a Nations Championships, then the sport will not progress for years. The timing of CVC’s offer for 30% of the Six Nations for around £500m is deliberately timed to wreck World Rugby plans to gain the funds to expand the game further into both Tier 2 and 3 countries. 

CVC's bid also comes only three months after it bought 27% of Premiership Rugby for £230m, which could lead to a big conflict of interest for the money grabbing private equity boys. Imagine them dictating timing of fixtures for both competitions just to please a new rugby broadcaster like Amazon or Netflix ... yes, I am sorry, bye bye terrestrial coverage (we don't care about the fans, just the cash).

The Six Nations “Project Light” proposal involves pooling TV rights from the Six Nations and Autumn Internationals, which they believe can generate more revenue than the Nations Championship. The Northern Hemisphere nations obviously do not have the bargaining power of the Six Nations, so support the World Rugby proposal. What the Six Nations need to remember is that they need these countries support for Project Light - imagine NZ boycotting its annual trip to Twickenham? Fixtures against Georgia, Fiji and Samoa, whilst absolutely necessary, will not please fans, broadcasters or union.

It is simple for me, the Six Nations needs to modernise, embrace relegation and be one part of a bigger, global tournament. Anyone who loves rugby, should want the sport played by as many people as possible in as many countries as possible. And if Japan, USA or Pacific Islands replace Wales, New Zealand and Australia amongst the rugby elite, then so be it.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 4: A TALE OF MISSED TACKLES

So Wales Grand Slam train keeps a rollin, thanks to a one score win over Scotland, maintaining Gatland's 11/11 unbeaten record against the Scots. Only Ireland can derail them now at the Principality on Saturday. England predictably routed Italy, scoring eight tries and 50+ points in the process, and can still win the Six Nations if Ireland beat Wales, as thanks to superior bonus points they are only one point behind the undefeated table leaders. And let's not forget, that if Ireland do beat the Welsh, and the Scots overcome England at Twickenham for the first time since 1983, they could also retain the Six Nations trophy they won so convincingly last year.

Scotland once again underperformed in the first half of a test match, allowing Wales in for two relatively soft tries, especially the Josh Adams effort, where Kinghorn missed a relatively straightforward one on one tackle (after the pass Adams received looked suspiciously forward). Then Pete Horne failed with an offensive tackle 10m out to prevent Jonathan Davies from scoring Wales' second try. The Scots rallied in the second half, despite losing Seymour and Kinghorn to injury, with replacements McGuigan and Hastings helping them finally get over the gainline.

Jonathan Davies ... like a fine red he gets better with age

The Scottish forwards started to gain yardage, especially Dell and Watson, but despite all the possession and territory, they could only score a single try, thanks to the Shaun Edwards inspired Welsh defence, which was clinical. It was also cynical at times, and how the referee did not card the Welsh for persistent offside or slowing the ball down is anyone's guess. Wales won ugly again, and, if they do win the Slam,will not be the best Welsh team to win all their matches, but certainly have set new standards in defence and mental strength, and how Gatland has successfully pulled together players from four underperforming Welsh franchises is nothing short of a miracle.

England's "Pacific Island" inspired backline cut loose against the sorry Italians, who could not cope with the multiple strike runners of Vunipola, Tuilagi, Cokanasiga, Te'o and Daly. They did not help themselves however, gifting the opposition at least half of their eight tries, with two clearing kick charge downs and many missed one on one tackles, something a Tier 1 nation should not be guilty of ever. With England 31 - 7 up with an hour to go, the game went flat, not the first time England has lost its concentration in the second half, but luckily Italian mistakes handed them back the initiative once more. There were plenty of positives for the English, with Genge, Kruis and Daly all having a fine games, although Shields was quiet again (despite his scores) and Cokanasiga was badly out of position defensively for Italy's tries. England move onto Scotland next week, where last year's loss appears to be still hurting them, so will be seeking to put 50+ points on a weakened Scottish side and hope Ireland do them a favour in Cardiff.

Is Big Joe the new Jonah Lomu?

Ireland regained some of their NZ beating form for the first time since being battered by England on the opening weekend, in easily overcoming a poor French team. Ireland recalled six forwards to their pack after the Italy game, with Ryan, Henderson and Best all putting in good performances. Ireland were 26 - 0 up before two late tries put a gloss on the scoreline. France had no answers to the wile and cunning of Sexton, and the pace of Larmour and Earls (the postman, who always delivers). France, who, despite naming an unchanged side (for first time ever?) could not repeat their improved home performance against Scotland, now travel to Rome to avoid the humiliation of defeat (surely possible...). Ireland, in Joe Schmidt's last ever Six Nations game, will want to deny Wales their Slam, and give themselves the chance to win the Championship, should the Scots turn water into whisky at Twickenham.

SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS WEEK 4

Scotland v Wales ko 1415hrs Saturday

Wales replace the injured Cory Hill with Adam Beard in the second row, with Jake Ball coming onto the bench, the only changes to the squad that beat England two weeks ago. Gareth Anscombe, again starts at fly half ahead of Dan Biggar. Even though Wales are going for the Slam, and Gatland has never lost to the Scots, it will be interesting to see how the 13 Welsh players affected by the mooted Ospreys-Scarlets merger react tomorrow. Not sure why the clubs decided to go public before the end of the tournament, but nothing surprises me with rugby administrators any more.

Adam Beard, the only change in Wales starting XV tomorrow

Scotland make four changes to the team that lost to France in Paris, with Finn Russell and WP Nel returning from injury, and Ali Price and Darcy Graham replacing Greig Laidlaw and Sean Maitland respectively. In the forwards, Magnus Bradbury is retained to bring some bulk to the mobile back row of Josh Strauss and Jamie Ritchie, an area where the Welsh are strong. 

Out wide, Peter Horne moves to 12 to accommodate Russell, giving them two good attackers and distributors, which should see Grigg, Kinghorn and the wings get plenty of ball. Sam Johnson drops out of the squad altogether, with Byron McGuigan coming onto the bench as backs cover, alongside the specialist half backs in Laidlaw and Adam Hastings. Scotland would love to spoil the Welsh Grand Slam dream in Gats final season. If they can play without fear, win some quick ball, especially at the breakdown and lineout, put the Welsh under sustained pressure, and get the crowd behind them, then they will score points, but can they deliver over 80 minutes?

Prediction: Scotland by 5

England v Italy ko 1645hrs Saturday

Eddie Jones has thrown caution to the wind and made quite a few changes to the squad that lost to Wales last time out. The England backline has an international flavour to it, with Ben Te'o and Joe Cokanasiga joining Manu Tuilagi in the starting lineup, with the half backs, Farrell and Youngs unchanged - hopefully Robson will get more gametime at scrum half off the bench. Up front, Genge, Launchbury and Shields all come in, with Moon and Wilson dropping to the bench and Lawes and Itoje out injured. England's game plan is clear, to bully Italy in all areas, not just upfront, although they also have plenty of pace in the front row, back row and back three. The front row contest will be attritional with Sinckler and Genge in the thick of it for sure.

Ellis Genge (left) will bring further mobility and aggression to the front row

Italy, after an impressive first half performance against Ireland, bring Parisse and Negri back into the pack following injury, and give hooker, Luca Bigi, his first start. Hard to believe it was only 2 years ago since Italy caused "ruckgate" at Twickenham, which some English players have still not recovered from. They will want quick ball, to break up the game, and move the heavy English forwards and backs around the park. Connor O'Shea is a smart coach, and Benetton deserve their lofty Pro 14 league position, so expect Italy to still be in the contest at 60 minutes, only for England to stretch away.

Prediction: England by 18

WORLD RUGBY PROPOSES NEW COMPETITION

All global rugby nations split into two conferences, a European one and a Rest of the World one, with each conference split into three divisions based on world ranking. All teams in the Division 1 of each conference will play against each other annually for points to win the division, gain promotion or avoid relegation. The same with Division 2 and Division 3. Division 1 in European Conference will be made up of current Six Nations countries with Division 1 from ROW Conference coming from current teams in Rugby Championship (plus two other countries based on world ranking). The top two teams in each conference in each division will then enter a play off, with the winners playing a final to determine the Division winners. This will mean a maximum number of international games of 11 per team per season, which is not far off what Wales (for example) would play currently in Six Nations (5 games) and Autumn Internationals (4 games) plus summer tour. This competition would not be played in World Cup years, and there would be no promotion or relegation in a Lions year.

Have a look at the enclosed video and make up your own mind. I was a sceptic, but having thought about it, am now broadly in favour as it will make all matches meaningful and expose some Tier 2 nations to more Tier 1 rugby. The clubs (especially in England and France) will not like it as players from the nations involved in playoffs will be absent for up to six consecutive weeks in the Autumn, and some players have already expressed concern regards travel required, burnout and injury recovery, and it will obviously favour those nations with greater strength in depth. Home and away advantage will be a major factor in influencing the outcome, especially when Northern Hemisphere teams play their Southern counterparts. And clearly the Six Nations countries and organisers have always resisted relegation so that sacred cow will need to be slaughtered.

https://www.world.rugby/video/403128

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 3: FRANCE V SCOTLAND

What really upsets Scottish fans is that for years they were not competitive, and so therefore player mistakes under international pressure were understandable, as they were simply not good enough. With two Scottish clubs in the QF of the Champions Cup, a Top 6 world ranking and 3rd place in last year's Six Nations (having beaten England), Scottish Rugby has never been in better health, so that excuse cannot be made for the manner of defeat on Saturday. Even being ravaged by injuries (out of a small playing base), is no defence for such a poor Scotland performance against a dispirited French team, who had only won 3 out of their last 18 games.

Scotland missed 35 tackles against France

Scotland needed a quick start, France got one. Scotland needed to score early, France did. Scotland needed to do the basics well, especially in defence, but missed multiple tackles for France's first try, which started from their own 22. Even when Huget was yellow carded in the first half, Scotland could not take advantage, and were very lucky to only be 3 - 10 down at halfway. Scotland needed to score first after half time, but France scored after a minute of the second half with a flowing move, including a successful chip and chase from Bastareaud, which summed up the game.

Chip and chase ... really?

Gregor Townsend, the Scotland coach was so unimpressed by his team, that he emptied virtually the whole bench after 64 minutes. Encouragingly, Price and Hastings at half backs managed to exploit the quick ball Scotland's forwards started producing, but the team lacked the accuracy needed to score points and get them back in the game. By the time Scotland got a consolation try, France were out of sight, eventually securing the bonus point in the 87th minute. France won 27-10, but having had a few tries ruled out by the TMO, could have won by 30 points, such was the gulf.

Dupont, the new French generation is here

France clearly have some good young players, especially out wide in Dupont, Ntamack and Ramos, who cut the opposition to shreds at times. However, Scotland need to pick themselves up in two week's time against Wales at home, and play like their lives depend upon it - the fans will expect nothing less. Hopefully Finn Russell will be back to make them less predictable. France will have a spring in their step going to Dublin to play Ireland, with nothing to lose, exactly when they are at their most dangerous.

SIX NATIONS REVIEW WEEK 3: WALES V ENGLAND

Well, well, the only consistency in this tournament is the inconsistency of the leading Six Nations teams. Wales pulled an unexpected second half out of the bag, France pulled out an unexpected performance for 60 minutes and Italy led Ireland unexpectedly at half time. With the World Cup looming, where the winner will need to win seven games in a row, what will the Southern Hemisphere countries be thinking at the moment, with England and Ireland looking vulnerable in a one off game away from their home ground.

Anyway, back to the big match at the Principality, which I watched in a pub in Malvern, an hour from the Welsh border, with a good mix of supporters. It was a strange game, with England dominant in the first half, especially in the contact area, but only being 10-3 ahead, resulting in my halftime assessment to my Welsh friend of "England look too good, only a matter of time" - what did I know?

Liam Williams caught everything on Saturday

A combination of improved pressure on England's half backs, resulting in poor kick execution (and then decision making) and smart tactics by the Welsh forwards, sucking in the English defenders in their 22, and nullifying their defensive line speed out wide, which led to a frustrated English side giving away too many penalties, allowing Wales to turn possession into points and claw their way back into the game. Then, Gatland's inspired substitution of Anscombe for Biggar, the test match warrior at fly half, resulted in two late scores to swing the match Wales' way, denying England even a losing bonus point.

Eddie Jones and his England's leadership team seem unable to react to unexpected Wales' tactics in second half, and could find no plan B, and also, when England were crying out for fresh legs, minds and decision making in the last 15 minutes, why were Robson or Ford not given a chance? Eddie had correctly substituted Kyle Sinckler after 57 minutes (before he was given a yellow) so why freeze at the crucial moment and persist with both Farrell and Youngs, when momentum was swinging Wales' way.

Kyle Sinckler was tactically removed by Eddie Jones but had a fine first half

If Wales are to win the Six Nations Championship, having failed to gain a bonus point in previous two home games, they will have to remain undefeated for the Slam, as England, with only two games remaining against Italy and Scotland look set to gain maximum points taking them 20 in total. Wales, with only a current two point advantage, will then have to beat both Scotland (away) and Ireland (home), and benefit from the three point bonus (for winning all games) to take the title in Gatland's final season. Post battle on Saturday evening, England fans were very aware of the maths, whereas Wales fans (having beaten the auld enemy) couldn't have cared less.